Yeah I’ll pass on these soundings near my area, please, no, almost the exact look as Easter with a plume of cape that comes from the western Atlantic/eastern Gulf of Mexico with the LLVL jet, just not as far north 
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Even with the quality of the NAM, it already shows broken up supercells in the QLCS, wow 
Keldeo
Member
Looks like its going to be NAM, UKMET and GFS vs EURO
gawxnative
Member
Cannot post right now, but in reading AFD's so far FFC is Bullish, while BHM is a bit more "bearish" putting more effect in the morning storms and not rebounding to higher unstable values
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I'm seeing a trend here lately that due to the current situation where global models are currently struggling because they are lacking critical data from aircraft. Seems like we aren't really able to nail down a threat until it gets 3-4 days out.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
My God.
Cbmatt2408
Member
Well for all of us guys in west and central GA that talk about how storms always roll through at night, here we go. From early signs it could be the Auburn to Columbus to LaGrange areas in the cross hairs.
Yeah, if the NAM's right, this one's going to hit us right at peak heating.
EDIT: That being said, the other models are several hours faster (suggesting a morning event), although they're trending in the NAM's direction.
Perhaps one saving grace with this setup is that there looks to be a lot more drier air aloft.
This is a good thing in that it should help to limit storm coverage, but it could also mean a higher intensity for the storms that do develop.
This is a good thing in that it should help to limit storm coverage, but it could also mean a higher intensity for the storms that do develop.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Basically looks like a dry line setup you see on the Great Plains, those more frequently feature discrete, isolated supercells, and the potential for strong tornadoes increases with said storm mode.
Yeah, this would be the setup to watch for those strong, long-tracked tornadoes and also prolific hailers.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're pretty fortunate that we may not have a ridiculous amount of CAPE to work w/ given the trough over New England that's pumping cool/stable air into much of the upper south the day before this event in addition to prefrontal convection in the warm advection regime that may suppress the warm front (at least temporarily) further to the south.
Obtaining adequate CAPE appears to be the primary limiting factor w/ this event, even into the afternoon on Thursday, the 3km NAM shows very little, if any MUCAPE in GA & the Carolinas. Later on in the evening & overnight, this could change however. Very curious to see how the environment looks beyond this point on the next few runs of the NAM.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM has overestimated the extent of the WF the last few events. Don’t be surprised if that continues here...
FWIW, the next few frames of the 12k NAM does show significant instability building northward towards BHM and ATL late Thursday Afternoon / Thursday evening, behind the prefrontal activity.
On the other hand, with a negative tilt trough and sub-1000mb low way up into Kentucky, a warm front would have an easier time moving northward despite mesoscale influence from CAD and morning convection.
Psalm 148:8
Member
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Gotta hand it to BMX on the severe outlook in the last event... the guy that hand drew the map showing the cooler stable event and the worst staying Montgomery south... they got it right... SPC... and I’m not bashing them... but they kept us in a hatched moderate when it clearly wasn’t going to happen. I’m hoping BMX is right again! They do have some top notch forecasters there!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Difference here however may be that the convection clears during the late overnight hours or morning, giving ample time for destabilization and lateral expansion of the warm sector.