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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

I think this one has the potential to be MDT in quite a few places. I, like others, am not criticizing SPC because they are amazing and have a very hard job,
But this last event was writing on the wall the northern parts of our states were going to be fine. I think they are SPOT on for this one
So far.
 
Well with the NAMs its about to be a case of which one's right . 3k, which usually can be stronger, pretty much looks like the last event where most problems were to the south while the 12k likes for there to be severe problems close to the TN border, then through to parts of NC.

0z should be good later today (although I might look at the 18z too).
 
Well this should be fun. Looks like the NAM might be a bit higher with CAPE vs previous runs and over more areas. Also notice how CAPE’s really expand and get stronger once this approaches AL/MS line.
BD14B601-C1F1-4429-BDB9-4C70E983A877.jpegDAC15C1B-BD5B-4908-BE4D-BF98EB27C142.jpegCA4DCEB0-A40A-43CE-A35E-FCAEF40BB997.jpegF79EFEA6-0C87-46D1-8105-EA2491604512.jpeg62E34682-7CB9-44E4-A287-56A71F1EFD32.jpegE45E90A0-EE25-4533-808D-5BD2B519E515.jpeg
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well with the NAMs its about to be a case of which one's right . 3k, which usually can be stronger, pretty much looks like the last event where most problems were to the south while the 12k likes for there to be severe problems close to the TN border, then through to parts of NC.

0z should be good later today (although I might look at the 18z too).
Click to expand...
3k NAM looks to be developing more discrete convection over central Alabama at hour 57.9C3E4432-8DFD-4681-B28F-638EF9484970.pngA6AAC5E9-D5CD-4810-944F-7E8F59FBD81A.png
 
3km Nam hour 60 STP values definitely high over the far south, but not as high farther north. This is probably due to the mass of showers and storms over the south. If you take that away I would think Georgia could be in trouble.EC0C7F57-77AD-46FD-A438-E9CAC1025520.pngD266ABD5-1D62-4D84-AA0A-B2D5CBE8AEE0.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...
And we already saw what discrete supercells could do in the Easter weekend environment.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...
Correct me if I am wrong (and SPC was saying this too) this is almost a southern plains types setup with the dry line right? I don’t know when the last time or how rare these setups are in the SE. Some soundings look like maybe huge hail producers as well.
 
Definitely happy hour for nam im surprised how high stps are. Even for western NC 1-2 range crazy
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...

On the other hand, there are several possible points of failure aside from the earlier prefrontal convection. Storm coverage, dry air aloft being mixed into the RFDs of any supercell that gets going (cooling the RFD >>> less favorable for tornadoes) and backing in the profile below 3km can significantly hamper (& weaken) the mesocyclones in this kind of environment even w/ favorable thermodynamics and shear.

1587481751694.png
 
While the NAM model is on the extreme side, and the SPC notes that, it is looking like an event similar if not worse to the Easter event for the state of SC if it were to be correct.
 
deltadog03 said:
Correct me if I am wrong (and SPC was saying this too) this is almost a southern plains types setup with the dry line right? I don’t know when the last time or how rare these setups are in the SE. Some soundings look like maybe huge hail producers as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is more typical for a south-central plains dry line setup w/ low-level capping inversion & elevated mixed layer allowing for ample build-up of surface based and low-level CAPE along with drier air aloft which when laterally mixed by updrafts, may inhibit the development of neighboring storms and thus temper the upscale growth into a QLCS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...

Timing should help eastern NC as it's more overnight versus late evening correct? I know parameters are still decent. The question is was Easter's outbreak a fluke for overnight tornados or is that going to be a trend for this severe season?
 
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