BufordWX
Member
Greatly, if not completely.
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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Z
Zander98al
Guest
I wonder if this is one of the hrrrv4 problems. Each modelseems to have a quirk too it. I hope its accurate but. Until Cams converge on that idea i wouldn't focus on it to much.
Dawgdaze22
Member
BufordWX
Member
It’s only one model. Nam still paints a much different picture.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Jrips2710
Member
0z 12k NAM slightly slower with the energy so far thru 30
BufordWX
Member
Personally I feel like it might be overdoing the MCS. I hope it’s there though since it would destroy any chance of severe weather up here.
Jessy89
Member
BufordWX
Member
Long range RAP most likely is overdoing things substantially, but at first glance it seems to be siding with the Nam right now.
I know this is the long range RAP, but that looks horrifying.
Jrips2710
Member
Not quite sure what you mean by better. If you are looking for less severe weather, the answer is probably yes.
The slower the energy is the more it allows heights to build across the southeast which would probably lead to the warm sector becoming more expansive. The reason the NAM has been so much more ominous is because it’s been pretty significantly slower than most other models. Things have narrowed a little more today however.
BufordWX
Member
Will there be gulf storms or no gulf storms?
That is one of if not the main question that will decide how things will play out on Thursday.
That is one of if not the main question that will decide how things will play out on Thursday.
farleydawg792
Member
Jessy89
Member
Looks like the change from stable to unstable air mass. Takes place between 1-4pm Georgia South Carolina
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That looks bad for most of Mississippi and would probably be bad for most of Alabama...
21Z SREF Sigtor
NoSnowATL
Member
Yep, trends
Gulf storms, if not we are in trouble. I think Glenn Burns has it right today. Tomorrow’s runs will be very important for Central Al and Ga. I hope the gulf takes it all and Thursday is sunny and dry!
NoSnowATL
Member
That’s ugly
Jessy89
Member
Nam not backing down. Looks like the cluster of storms in Georgia upstate sc around 7pm could rotate. Favorable conditions
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Mind uploading hour 42 and hour 45...?
BufordWX
Member
00z 3km Nam seems to have pulled the Thursday morning action a bit to the north compared to the last run.
Jrips2710
Member
Oof those numbers are up a bit. Rarely do we get those numbers into Georgia. Sigtor has its faults but alarming to see those numbers. Still plenty of moving pieces and a lot has to come together for the potential to be tapped into.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
The 3km nam really shows moisture building in right after the QCLS is passing through alabama and mississippi. Incredible how fast it shows the atmosphere rebounding.
Snowflowxxl
Member
I am about 80% confident this event isn’t going to pan out. The NAM has been drunk the last two event being WAY too far north. These things rarely occur in GA for a reason. All of the usual suspects for why they don’t pan out are showing on the models right now. I think the NAM is out too lunch.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
3km nam has supercells developing across alabama around 2 o'clock. And no gulf convection. 
Jrips2710
Member
Morning convection is really impacting the afternoon rebound on the 3k NAM
0z vs. 18z
0z vs. 18z
Dawgdaze22
Member
Yep that convection and it’s trailing stratiform will really lower the threat if this is correct for some areas 
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea north of I20 this is good news and predictable.
That morning MCS would setup a boundary, so storms would likely be tame north of that boundary
NAM 12km May not show the same thing due to worse resolution, it won’t show stratiform precip behind the MCS well so the warm sector rebounds, that’s why it has recovery
Snowflowxxl
Member
Non event IMO. Seen this song and dance too many times. If the SPC goes any higher than ENH for this than I will LOL. The morning junk isn’t going to let there be an afternoon threat.
Jessy89
Member
There be a threat but probably isolated in nature. I don’t really feel like this is a large scale tornado outbreak. More like isolated severe weather for some
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Shaggy
Member
Yeah seen storms along the gulf kill moisture transport in winter storms more than a few times in my life. No reason to think it wont do it again here if that MCS develops.
Jessy89
Member
I mean a lot can change in a day. But some of tonight’s trends are encouraging
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That moderate risk bust back in March in the OH valley is a good example of what a MCS can do for areas NW of it
CAMs coming into range and they look like the 3km NAM 
NAM did lower its craziness from the past few runs, prob closer to reality. Fact is, globals still show a formatable threat and the run to run consistency with the CAM's are still needing to work themselves out. IF we get gulf convection then yes, I-20 can forget about seeing a big threat. I wouldn't sound the alarm or say this is a no go either. That would be silly.