• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

Yeah I’ll pass on these soundings near my area, please, no, almost the exact look as Easter with a plume of cape that comes from the western Atlantic/eastern Gulf of Mexico with the LLVL jet, just not as far north 6BC6322D-0CDB-4734-B4CC-5E98D26263C4.png65AE8160-4113-4D2C-B767-61FC3EB229AD.png
 
Even with the quality of the NAM, it already shows broken up supercells in the QLCS, wow 3D5197CC-AC57-4DBE-B49A-331C67E4293D.png
 
Guess were never gonna get a break, based on these models is this gonna be worse than the past 2 event we just had?
 
Cannot post right now, but in reading AFD's so far FFC is Bullish, while BHM is a bit more "bearish" putting more effect in the morning storms and not rebounding to higher unstable values
 
BufordWX said:
This event has really escalated quickly it feels like.
Click to expand...
I'm seeing a trend here lately that due to the current situation where global models are currently struggling because they are lacking critical data from aircraft. Seems like we aren't really able to nail down a threat until it gets 3-4 days out.
 
Well for all of us guys in west and central GA that talk about how storms always roll through at night, here we go. From early signs it could be the Auburn to Columbus to LaGrange areas in the cross hairs.
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
Well for all of us guys in west and central GA that talk about how storms always roll through at night, here we go. From early signs it could be the Auburn to Columbus to LaGrange areas in the cross hairs.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if the NAM's right, this one's going to hit us right at peak heating.

EDIT: That being said, the other models are several hours faster (suggesting a morning event), although they're trending in the NAM's direction.
 
Perhaps one saving grace with this setup is that there looks to be a lot more drier air aloft.

This is a good thing in that it should help to limit storm coverage, but it could also mean a higher intensity for the storms that do develop.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Perhaps one saving grace with this setup is that there looks to be a lot more drier air aloft.

This is a good thing in that it should help to limit storm coverage, but it could also mean a higher intensity for the storms that do develop.
Click to expand...

Basically looks like a dry line setup you see on the Great Plains, those more frequently feature discrete, isolated supercells, and the potential for strong tornadoes increases with said storm mode.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Basically looks like a dry line setup you see on the Great Plains, those more frequently feature discrete, isolated supercells, and the potential for strong tornadoes increases with said storm mode.
Click to expand...

Yeah, this would be the setup to watch for those strong, long-tracked tornadoes and also prolific hailers.
 
SouthATLwx said:
Yeah, this would be the setup to watch for those strong, long-tracked tornadoes and also prolific hailers.
Click to expand...

We're pretty fortunate that we may not have a ridiculous amount of CAPE to work w/ given the trough over New England that's pumping cool/stable air into much of the upper south the day before this event in addition to prefrontal convection in the warm advection regime that may suppress the warm front (at least temporarily) further to the south.

Obtaining adequate CAPE appears to be the primary limiting factor w/ this event, even into the afternoon on Thursday, the 3km NAM shows very little, if any MUCAPE in GA & the Carolinas. Later on in the evening & overnight, this could change however. Very curious to see how the environment looks beyond this point on the next few runs of the NAM.

1587472805317.png
1587472788003.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
We're pretty fortunate that we may not have a ridiculous amount of CAPE to work w/ given the trough over New England that's pumping cool/stable air into much of the upper south the day before this event in addition to prefrontal convection in the warm advection regime that may suppress the warm front (at least temporarily) further to the south.

Obtaining adequate CAPE appears to be the primary limiting factor w/ this event, even into the afternoon on Thursday, the 3km NAM shows very little, if any MUCAPE in GA & the Carolinas. Later on in the evening & overnight, this could change however. Very curious to see how the environment looks beyond this point on the next few runs of the NAM.

View attachment 39991
View attachment 39990
Click to expand...

FWIW, the next few frames of the 12k NAM does show significant instability building northward towards BHM and ATL late Thursday Afternoon / Thursday evening, behind the prefrontal activity.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
NAM has overestimated the extent of the WF the last few events. Don’t be surprised if that continues here...
Click to expand...

On the other hand, with a negative tilt trough and sub-1000mb low way up into Kentucky, a warm front would have an easier time moving northward despite mesoscale influence from CAD and morning convection.
 
Gotta hand it to BMX on the severe outlook in the last event... the guy that hand drew the map showing the cooler stable event and the worst staying Montgomery south... they got it right... SPC... and I’m not bashing them... but they kept us in a hatched moderate when it clearly wasn’t going to happen. I’m hoping BMX is right again! They do have some top notch forecasters there!!
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Gotta hand it to BMX on the severe outlook in the last event... the guy that hand drew the map showing the cooler stable event and the worst staying Montgomery south... they got it right... SPC... and I’m not bashing them... but they kept us in a hatched moderate when it clearly wasn’t going to happen. I’m hoping BMX is right again! They do have some top notch forecasters there!!
Click to expand...

Difference here however may be that the convection clears during the late overnight hours or morning, giving ample time for destabilization and lateral expansion of the warm sector.
 
I think this one has the potential to be MDT in quite a few places. I, like others, am not criticizing SPC because they are amazing and have a very hard job,
But this last event was writing on the wall the northern parts of our states were going to be fine. I think they are SPOT on for this one
So far.
 
Well with the NAMs its about to be a case of which one's right . 3k, which usually can be stronger, pretty much looks like the last event where most problems were to the south while the 12k likes for there to be severe problems close to the TN border, then through to parts of NC.

0z should be good later today (although I might look at the 18z too).
 
Well this should be fun. Looks like the NAM might be a bit higher with CAPE vs previous runs and over more areas. Also notice how CAPE’s really expand and get stronger once this approaches AL/MS line.
BD14B601-C1F1-4429-BDB9-4C70E983A877.jpegDAC15C1B-BD5B-4908-BE4D-BF98EB27C142.jpegCA4DCEB0-A40A-43CE-A35E-FCAEF40BB997.jpegF79EFEA6-0C87-46D1-8105-EA2491604512.jpeg62E34682-7CB9-44E4-A287-56A71F1EFD32.jpegE45E90A0-EE25-4533-808D-5BD2B519E515.jpeg
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well with the NAMs its about to be a case of which one's right . 3k, which usually can be stronger, pretty much looks like the last event where most problems were to the south while the 12k likes for there to be severe problems close to the TN border, then through to parts of NC.

0z should be good later today (although I might look at the 18z too).
Click to expand...
3k NAM looks to be developing more discrete convection over central Alabama at hour 57.9C3E4432-8DFD-4681-B28F-638EF9484970.pngA6AAC5E9-D5CD-4810-944F-7E8F59FBD81A.png
 
3km Nam hour 60 STP values definitely high over the far south, but not as high farther north. This is probably due to the mass of showers and storms over the south. If you take that away I would think Georgia could be in trouble.EC0C7F57-77AD-46FD-A438-E9CAC1025520.pngD266ABD5-1D62-4D84-AA0A-B2D5CBE8AEE0.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...
And we already saw what discrete supercells could do in the Easter weekend environment.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...
Correct me if I am wrong (and SPC was saying this too) this is almost a southern plains types setup with the dry line right? I don’t know when the last time or how rare these setups are in the SE. Some soundings look like maybe huge hail producers as well.
 
Definitely happy hour for nam im surprised how high stps are. Even for western NC 1-2 range crazy
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...

On the other hand, there are several possible points of failure aside from the earlier prefrontal convection. Storm coverage, dry air aloft being mixed into the RFDs of any supercell that gets going (cooling the RFD >>> less favorable for tornadoes) and backing in the profile below 3km can significantly hamper (& weaken) the mesocyclones in this kind of environment even w/ favorable thermodynamics and shear.

1587481751694.png
 
While the NAM model is on the extreme side, and the SPC notes that, it is looking like an event similar if not worse to the Easter event for the state of SC if it were to be correct.
 
deltadog03 said:
Correct me if I am wrong (and SPC was saying this too) this is almost a southern plains types setup with the dry line right? I don’t know when the last time or how rare these setups are in the SE. Some soundings look like maybe huge hail producers as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah this is more typical for a south-central plains dry line setup w/ low-level capping inversion & elevated mixed layer allowing for ample build-up of surface based and low-level CAPE along with drier air aloft which when laterally mixed by updrafts, may inhibit the development of neighboring storms and thus temper the upscale growth into a QLCS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Strong tornado threat may be higher w/ this one given the discrete storm mode at least initially in GA/AL and perhaps the Carolinas. 12z NAM was nasty, overall parameter space analogous to the easter weekend outbreak except the storm mode is discrete sups instead of linear QLCS. Yikes
Click to expand...

Timing should help eastern NC as it's more overnight versus late evening correct? I know parameters are still decent. The question is was Easter's outbreak a fluke for overnight tornados or is that going to be a trend for this severe season?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top