Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

[Shaggy]

It’s amazing how poorly NWP have done with these next 2 threats

Not digging Raleighs mention of a triple point traversing the Piedmont. That makes me pucker sometimes as well. I hate that MHX seems to pass on afternoon discos some days. Wonder why that would be?

 

[deltadog03]

NAM 3KM just went nuts.

 

[mbway091]

Unless I read it wrong at no point does the 3knam even give me a severe sounding whereas the 12k gives me a tornado sounding as the broken line moves through in the dark in the night yay.

Yeah that's what confuses me. It's a huge difference up here in GSO. Obviously I would like the 3k to be the one to verify...

 

[Arcc]

One thing I could see put a damper on a high end threat is really the lack of directional shear with height. Seeing if they back will be my focus the next day or so.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m assuming the NAM 3km/NAM 12km look different is because the NAM 12km looks a tad bit more amped and less flat meaning it can pull in better warm sector/SBcape , but still that’s a pretty big difference, especially for areas on the northern side, basically go from high end soundings on the NAM 12km to elevated storms on the 3km

 

[farleydawg792]

15z SREF Significant Tornado Ingredients

 

[Cadi40]

So it seems here in Charlotte the threat is decreasing?

 

[ryan1234]

So it seems here in Charlotte the threat is decreasing?

Not at all. It's too early to really make any assumptions. Tonight's modeling should offer better guidance and of course tomorrow. The warm front will play a big factor as well. Especially along the border counties in NC.

 

[tempo47]

hopefully this will be more south of ATL like last event, at this rate im gonna need to invest in a storm shelter lol

 

[pcbjr]

hopefully this will be more south of ATL like last event, at this rate im gonna need to invest in a storm shelter lol

indications at present are that is a real possibility ... would prefer indications that it all would go "poof"

 

[farleydawg792]

18Z NAM for Athens, GA @ 8PM Thursday Evening


18z NAM 3K for Athens, GA @ 8PM Thursday Evening

 

[farleydawg792]

NAM 3KM just went nuts.

Sure did.....Looking at your soundings for your neck of the woods, its showing PDS for 5 straight hours

 

[Zander98al]

Attention graber lol
View attachment 40034

Thats insane seeing that much isolation between supercells. We need to really REALLY hope that doesnt happen.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probabilities

 

[ryan1234]

So, in order to get an MCS along the GC, I always thought you would need to have a low pressure farther south? Since the better dynamics are closer to the LP. I could be way off.

 

[ryan1234]

Probabilities View attachment 40049View attachment 40050View attachment 40051View attachment 40048

That paints an UGLY picture for the South Central and Southeast states. Not good!

 

[Zander98al]

Probabilities View attachment 40049View attachment 40050View attachment 40051View attachment 40048

How much longer can we continue to dodge the bullet. Lets hope we dodge another one and this doesn't end up being a history maker. We've been lucky so far in my opinion

 

[BufordWX]

 

[Shaggy]

I’m assuming the NAM 3km/NAM 12km look different is because the NAM 12km looks a tad bit more amped and less flat meaning it can pull in better warm sector/SBcape , but still that’s a pretty big difference, especially for areas on the northern side, basically go from high end soundings on the NAM 12km to elevated storms on the 3km View attachment 40041View attachment 40042

That sucks because those differences are what seperates us NC folk from a nothingburger to potential night time tornado hazard.

 

[Zander98al]

This is everybody tomorrow night. Please hold off on any spc high chat until day of. Thank you ?. Found this pic on twitter lol