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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

Shawn said:
They're discussions have all alluded to the uncertainty. I guess better safe than sorry. Reminder, we weather people look at, and hang on each of their words and forecast graphics... the general public doesn't take this stuff nearly as seriously and if they decide to downgrade, it's not going to cause mass hysteria.
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I agree. They can always retract if needed. I just would have assumed they would have stuck with a slight risk but extended it north. But I definitely wouldn't argue their prediction. Better safe than sorry.
 
But I would argue it will lead to people letting their guard down in the future because forecast is likely to not live up to potential. Because people like Scotty Powell are screaming on the top of their lungs on social media saying enhanced risk for foothills. Oh well
 
Just saw the SPC put us under a level 3 risk here. Didn't expect that. I was looking more at Saturday for storms. But sounds like this has big bust potential.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
But I would argue it will lead to people letting their guard down in the future because forecast is likely to not live up to potential. Because people like Scotty Powell are screaming on the top of their lungs on social media saying enhanced risk for foothills. Oh well
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That's the thing. Those "people" who "let their guard down" aren't a factor here.

Tell me right now, one person (that you have not shown, or told) in real life, that talks about the latest SPC outlooks? (not the local mets)

Around here, I see the local media sometimes mention the outlooks and put a pretty map up and people share it. That's about as close as it gets with the general public.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I disagree with SPC. They should have worked with local NWS such as Blacksburg and Raleigh because they would have not agreed for such an outlook. Thankfully there is time for it to be downgraded tomorrow at least.
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Honestly, you have no idea if SPC and the local NWS offices aren't talking internally...most likely they are. Most people don't read the discussions and there is plenty of time to adjust as needed.
 
Shawn said:
The SPC did this with the last event that stayed to the South. To be fair, they know what they're doing though... you don't just get to the SPC for you know, getting a basic meteorology degree.
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Well, the last few years we have had more severe storms around here when we are not under a watch of any kind. And then there are times that places have had tornadoes and severe storms before they put a watch out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, the last few years we have had more severe storms around here when we are not under a watch of any kind. And then there are times that places have had tornadoes and severe storms before they put a watch out.
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It's almost like people still believe a watch or warning will control what the weather does.

I see this constantly:
"No winter storm watch? the models must be wrong and it won't snow"
"No moderate risk, cape must not make it here."
"Surprised they didn't issue a tornado warning for that cell, that must not be a debris ball on radar then."
 
Shawn said:
It's almost like people still believe a watch or warning will control what the weather does.

I see this constantly:
"No winter storm watch? the models must be wrong and it won't snow"
"No moderate risk, cape must not make it here."
"Surprised they didn't issue a tornado warning for that cell, that must not be a debris ball on radar then."
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No one said it controls the weather. But it is up to the SPC to warn the public and they are the ones to issue the watches and warnings.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I disagree with SPC. They should have worked with local NWS such as Blacksburg and Raleigh because they would have not agreed for such an outlook. Thankfully there is time for it to be downgraded tomorrow at least.
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Did you read the Raleigh AFD?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I disagree with SPC. They should have worked with local NWS such as Blacksburg and Raleigh because they would have not agreed for such an outlook. Thankfully there is time for it to be downgraded tomorrow at least.
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The SPC is not part of any local NWS office. They have never worked with individual offices as far as I'm concerned. They know their stuff, man. And have done an excellent job this year in regards to severe weather. Given the parameters tomorrow, it would surprise me to see them downgrade. They put an 'enhanced risk' there for a reason.
 
mbway091 said:
The GSP afternoon AFD doesn't mention the word "tornado" a single time. Am I missing something?
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Nope your not forecasts do not suggest widespread enhanced tornadoes in the GSP viewing area. Feel free to use tropical tidbits to see the strato rains tomorrow early 5am into the afternoon.
 
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