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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
This is different, that’s at 10mb and it shows warming of the Stratospheric polar vortex/some displacement, this is good for winter weather lovers as it would likely bring a TPV along with it, 500mb is different
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If the -EPO goes up as shown on the GEFS, that'll shut off the favorable wave 1/displacement forcing on the TPV & it'll likely recover without a sudden stratospheric warming event or major disruption in the following frames, arguably strengthening more after the -EPO develops actually, unless the Urals high remains strong, in which case we could open the door to a split.

The key to getting more PV displacement/disruption is keeping the heights low over the Bering Sea & NE Siberia.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Oh no is that the southeast ridge :(

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
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This is not a 500mb pattern! This is at 10mb..... big difference! This is showing the potential stratospheric warming event coming up mid-month. Research "stratospheric warming effects". Sorry, Eric and Fro beat me to it.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
2018 was fun. I’m not opposed to clippers. Sometimes they work out. And if you can sneak a wave underneath and they converge you can really get some fireworks.
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I don’t know but Mack will have fun with them, but your right, I mean mid Jan 2018 was a example of a clipper doing the right thing at the right time
 
I’m so looking forward to the chill of Mon and beyond down here. Going to be great for being outside with the very low dewpoints. This is my favorite time of year. So refreshing. Hogtown also looking great for @pcbjr

First freezes for us possible Wednesday morning!
 
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GaWx said:
I’m so looking forward to the chill of Mon and beyond down here. Going to be great for being outside with the very low dewpoints. This is my favorite time of year. So refreshing. Hogtown also looking great for @pcbjr

First freezes for us possible Wednesday morning!
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Exciting ! Meanwhile Hatteras won’t even drop below 40, it’s crazy how cape Hatteras has slighter milder mean minimums than Savannah despite being 3 degrees further north !
 
BufordWX said:
Big time, classical fantasy land storm for once.View attachment 54408
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Southern cutter. High out west is way too out west for areas east of the Apps. Probably means the ridge axis is too far west, and/or the NE vortex is lifting out, though I haven't looked at any upper level maps yet. Looks pretty good for the *gasp* midsouth though! :)
 
Lickwx said:
Exciting ! Meanwhile Hatteras won’t even drop below 40, it’s crazy how cape Hatteras has slighter milder mean minimums than Savannah despite being 3 degrees further north !
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And when it drops below 32° and they get snow, it’s usually a lot of it in a short period of time. It just pulls every drop of moisture out of the Gulf Stream and wrings it dry.
 
A few don’t look at the bigger picture. The S/E ridge will come and go all winter. That’s normal. We don’t see +20 anomalies through Christmas like years past. We can score this winter if we get the S/E ridge to come and go every other week. The storm systems we have had (I know many tropical but not tomorrow’s event) have been strong. If we continue this we are gonna see a 12” total type of snow storm become possible. Winter weather in the S/E often hits after well above normal temps so the S/E ridge may be a good thing (temperature balance effect et). ~birdman
 
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