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Pattern October Thread

Rain Cold said:
I've been alive a decent number of years and I have been through a lot of first and 2nd year Ninas. I have never seen a blowtorch pattern set in and sustain itself nonstop from September through March. That simply isn't going to happen. But it is frustrating to go through this much of Autumn so far with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of it.
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Agree 100%. You never see a pattern hold from early fall right through the winter… whether it’s a warm one or cool one. Even the absolute blowtorch of 2011-‘12 had it’s cold shots, especially early on and then later in February.
 
I still like the 17-20 as the period we actually could start feeling more like fall around here seems consistent among models as of right now
 
I imagine, assuming this supposed front does happen, we roast ahead of it. GFS has widespread 6-12+ anomalies in the D6-8 range
 
jackendrickwx said:
I imagine, assuming this supposed front does happen, we roast ahead of it. GFS has widespread 6-12+ anomalies in the D6-8 range
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Also, “front” has been trending faster which will, again, assuming it’s real, likely reverse to some degree eventually given the usual GFS biases
 
Rain Cold said:
I've been alive a decent number of years and I have been through a lot of first and 2nd year Ninas. I have never seen a blowtorch pattern set in and sustain itself nonstop from September through March. That simply isn't going to happen. But it is frustrating to go through this much of Autumn so far with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of it.
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I always think about 01-02 11-12 as possibilities and concerns. Very warm winters nationwide which had a very brief cold spell in November and blowtorch after all winter. I know things will balance out. It always does. Sometimes fall gets delayed longer than normal
 
Mr. Golf said:
What's exciting about this?
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Probably nothing since the gfs hates the strat pv but moving, weakening, disrupting, stretching the young pv leads to increased chances its weak in the first half of winter which increases the chances of high latitude blocking and decreases the chances of coupling a really bad pattern from the trop->strat
 
SD said:
Probably nothing since the gfs hates the strat pv but moving, weakening, disrupting, stretching the young pv leads to increased chances its weak in the first half of winter which increases the chances of high latitude blocking and decreases the chances of coupling a really bad pattern from the trop->strat
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Shane, that is out most realistic chance for us to not blowtorch early on is if the pv stays weak imo. I can now see it stretched out. So far so good I suppose
 
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Mr. Golf said:
Shane, that is out most realistic chance for us to not blowtorch early on is if the pv stays weak imo. I can now see it stretched out. So far so good I suppose
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Pretty much even then the pacific needs to play nice or we will be watching Portland, Seattle, Vegas take our snow
 
Mr. Golf said:
I always think about 01-02 11-12 as possibilities and concerns. Very warm winters nationwide which had a very brief cold spell in November and blowtorch after all winter. I know things will balance out. It always does. Sometimes fall gets delayed longer than normal
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Those two winters are used as a analog this winter actually
 
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