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Pattern October Thread

SD said:
Looking at the eps spreads the large % of members are 85 or less. We are getting to the point of the year where it's hard to be truly hot I believe RDUs records fall below 90 next week. If anything it's just an incredibly annoying pattern when most of us would rather be in the 70s for highs 50s for lows with dews in the 40s & 50s
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Reminds me of 2002 when true fall air was very slow to come.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah, because honestly looking at the forecast the next 10-14 days, high temperatures aren’t bad at all… mostly upper 70s to around 80 which is nothing unusual for this time of the year. Where we’re getting above average is our lows which is obviously due to the higher dews
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Right, which sucks. One thing I do look forward to in Oct is much lower DP's, temps in upper 70s meh ok but then dropping back to upper 40s low 50s which isn't going to happen in this pattern. Those daytime highs though as we approach mid Oct will be slightly above normal.
 
16 more days. OCT 20 will be the flip, + or - 24 to 36 hrs. Well survive it. Personally I can use the rains this week and I guess the higher dps at night will help with germination. But im in the corner with others, ready for Fall to kick in high gear. Always think mid Oct to turkey day is by far the best wx in NC all year. Perfect for outdoor activities.
 
RMM seems a little bit deceiving that’s clear cut forcing in the MC/WPAC17A3A412-D698-46B8-9F79-165B50AD34BB.png
 
SD said:
Gotta think there's more to it here. I wish the raleighwx mjo composite page was still live
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I’ve been trying to find professor Paul roundy from twitter MJO/tropical forcing page but I can’t find it anymore
 
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Lickwx said:
Sounds like the models are gon have to correct to cooler solutions or we are missing a piece .
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The pattern sort of makes sense but doesn’t, trop forcing isn’t great for warmth but the pattern currently resembles that of a canonical La Niña
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern sort of makes sense but doesn’t, trop forcing isn’t great for warmth but the pattern currently resembles that of a canonical La Niña
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Something is acting to put the pac jet into overdrive. My guess which may be wrong is the BN heights from Siberia into AK and the attempts to force ridging to its south is acting to accelerate the jet and turns a pattern that is relatively decent from a forcing perspective into a bad one. It's kind of what we saw in the 19/20 winter where we kept trying to ridge but couldn't dislodge the AK vortex so we kept a fast flow.
 
EF
Myfrotho704_ said:
The pattern sort of makes sense but doesn’t, trop forcing isn’t great for warmth but the pattern currently resembles that of a canonical La Niña
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maybe that is why we aren’t completely torching with highs staying below/average and lows above average by a good bit.. plus models seem to really try to keep that low pressure system around for quite a while around the SE coast feeding us clouds and showers and basically the same weather for a while
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
EF

maybe that is why we aren’t completely torching with highs staying below/average and lows above average by a good bit.. plus models seem to really try to keep that low pressure system around for quite a while around the SE coast feeding us clouds and showers and basically the same weather for a while
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Okay sike I didn’t see morning data I just woke up!
 
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