Pattern October Thread

[FallsLake]

Yeah this is probably a big driver View attachment 92018View attachment 92019View attachment 92020View attachment 92021

For this time of year, what you're showing is probably a good thing. We need to build the snow cover in Siberia. Doesn't matter if folks believe (or not) in the Siberian October snow increase theory, we need that area snow covered and cold this winter to be a source for our cold.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Boy the bathtub ain’t planning to slosh. May not sniff a sub 60° overnight low for at least a couple weeks.


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[SD]

I agree and feel the same way but I know in winter months they are least have stronger correlation I feel like in the past we’ve pulled up the mjo phases in say December January and February and what ever phase we are in (as long as it’s a strong phase signal) it’s usually correlated to the temperature and precip plots whether that be warm or cold even though yes there are other factors still in the winter but the correlation is stronger then right?

To be honest I'd be lying if I said yes or no since I'm not entirely sure what the hard data says. Just from what I have seen you can typically draw some conclusions from it in the Sept-May period with winter being the main time where it's closer to 1:1..

 

[Bham 99]

Damn north pole shifting Fs is up bigtime.

Isn't it shifting more towards Russia? the center of the North Pole?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Boy the bathtub ain’t planning to slosh. May not sniff a sub 60° overnight low for at least a couple weeks.


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That's pretty impressive to have 2+ weeks straight of above average lows. Good luck ever getting 2 weeks of below average lows.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Isn't it shifting more towards Russia? the center of the North Pole?

I think so. Cold air gets pulled farther north and it changes the pattern below. Kind of makes sense to me.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

That's pretty impressive to have 2+ weeks straight of above average lows. Good luck ever getting 2 weeks of below average lows.

That happened this past February here in Texas.

 

[BufordWX]

That happened this past February here in Texas.

OKC was below freezing for nearly 2 straight weeks in February.

 

[tennessee storm]

For this time of year, what you're showing is probably a good thing. We need to build the snow cover in Siberia. Doesn't matter if folks believe (or not) in the Siberian October snow increase theory, we need that area snow covered and cold this winter to be a source for our cold.
View attachment 92023

Siberia always starts to increase their snow coverage this time year , it’s common. Not seeing anything special yet .

 

[SD]

Tbh this isn't bad for us





Before someone corrects me I just realized the gfs and Canadian are the 0z runs..

 

[SD]

Interesting

 

[FallsLake]

Siberia always starts to increase their snow coverage this time year , it’s common. Not seeing anything special yet .

I agree. The only point I had is the future patter is good (needed) because the snow anomalies are starting at this point (today):

 

[NorthDFWwx]

InterestingView attachment 92030

Not surprised.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

InterestingView attachment 92030

Turning that into a sneaky severe wx trend pretty quickly, for areas west

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sucks it can’t just move east because the deep western trough forces it to cut NE

 

[SD]

??
View attachment 92033View attachment 92034View attachment 92035View attachment 92036

I just hope the front gets here which it looks like it won't

 

[SD]

Sucks it can’t just move east because the deep western trough forces it to cut NE

That next system is going to be bombs away in the rockies/plains

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That next system is going to be bombs away in the rockies/plains

Might be the most legit severe wx setup of the entire year, and perhaps last year, looked at kinematics and cape for those areas and it’s pretty insane

 

[olhausen]

Its about that time of year where I start looking at models daily and I don’t really like what I see. Seems like a lot of slightly above average highs with way above average lows. By late this week my average lows start to dip in the upper 40s but forecast looks like it will be hard to hit 60 most nights for the next few weeks.