Since you're a met student, what is your scientific reasoning behind this comment?
And what does "being this back out in December" mean?
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Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
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Since you're a met student, what is your scientific reasoning behind this comment?
And what does "being this back out in December" mean?
Bro that’s not future maps that’s the mjo correlation for OND
I thought mjo correlation doesn’t really have much effect until you get into the winter months when you see large scale patterns hold much easier than when wave lengths are shorter and weather changes more frequently… everyone has talked about it every year on here
Typically effects cane season more June - October And starts to work on the H5 pattern much more in September/October
I've heard that explanation about the teleconnections, but not the MJO. That's definitely a new one.
NoSnowATL
Member
MJO only matters when it works out for winter storms. MJO is only one tool in the tool box.
It’s more like the problem we need to fix with our tools lol
Yeah the mjo is still a driver but it loses some influence at times and can be trumped by other global circulation. I'd really like to see mjo composites when you add in other factors like enso, +/- pdo, +/-amo, +/-aam. Until you drill down to a more granular level the composites are helpful but aren't telling the complete story then you have the chicken/egg issue of is the mjo the cause? If I could find a way to get the mjo data in a spreadsheet I would do it but most of the data I have found is meh
Okay .. but if we’re suppose to be in a cool phase right now then why aren’t we cool? I’m assuming because it doesn’t have as much correlation right now as it will in 2 months. That’s literally my only point and I’m getting shat on for it lol like damn
I blame La Niña forcing and the PV hanging out on the other side right now
You must be new here cause MJO correlation is talked about every year
NoSnowATL
Member
I aint smart but I would think those maps don't work anymore. Prob have to start around 1990 to 2021 to get a better idea. IDK
Low key I’ve been thinking about this too.. maybe we need to update with more of a scale that matches the current climate we are in
Yeah this is probably a big driver 
The mjo isn't an easy button for effects. It's like other teleconnection/analog/composite, it'll give you an idea but it's not perfect. Just like the composites that Fro posted what is the criteria? Is it all mjo phase 5 days in a single composite? If so, do el nino years yield a stronger -500mb height responsein the east so the whole map looks blue but in reality la nina years are neutral to slight ridge? It's much deeper than mjo phase x = result y no questions asked
Give us back our PV! sharing is caring
NoSnowATL
Member
Damn north pole shifting Fs is up bigtime.
I agree and feel the same way but I know in winter months they are least have stronger correlation I feel like in the past we’ve pulled up the mjo phases in say December January and February and what ever phase we are in (as long as it’s a strong phase signal) it’s usually correlated to the temperature and precip plots whether that be warm or cold even though yes there are other factors still in the winter but the correlation is stronger then right?
I meant the comment about the MJO not being as relevant in the warm season because of the short wavelengths. Most of us know the MJO isn't the be all / end all, but that specific explanation why is definitely a new one.
The posts @SD made is more along the line of what I was looking for in terms of an explanation. The answer isn't that it's too early to be using the MJO (as you stated earlier), rather the MJO is still important now but just not the only relevant indicator.