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Pattern October Thread

Rain Cold said:
Long live the 84 hr RGEM!

Pouring. About 3" so far with plenty more to go, it looks like.
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Haha yeah, other short range models blew it up here. 1.6 and counting, made for an interesting run this morning ?
 
The warmer MC water suck, but could be good for December as the MJO around the maritime continent for Dec = BN temps, but that quickly changes past Christmas into a warm phase 06F4DA22-2B15-4586-8D19-88A823C290D8.png9F6D76BE-AA80-419D-A677-D29DAC9CB481.png
 
jackendrickwx said:
GFS with a pretty stout fropa now nice temp drops next Saturday. Euro is slower and less excited which I would think will end up closer to reality, although I haven’t seen what ensembles have
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Yessir I’ve been on the 17th-20th for a change of pace and feeling around here .. regardless of who wins out it will still bring lower dews and lower temps that will certainly make it feel like fall round here finally
 
November no shave month is coming up. Could we start a thread for the month of November? End of Nov post your pic and whoever wins the most facial hair wins a southernwx price. Assuming Admin will support this and provide the price.
 
OCT 20 benchmark + or - a day or two looking on track.
Im beyond ready for this milldew wx to move on out. Havent seen the sun in a week. Water standing everywhere. My new grass looks great, but will be better when it drys out enough to mow. Looks like a tropical gyre off NC coast on radar.
 
GFS not interested in cooling us off too much just yet. Shaving off a few degrees over time however. The end of the run reminds me of February…not as cold of course.

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The long range pattern in the means isn't a beauty by any stretch but if you are wanting something more fall like it'll work but I wouldn't be surprised for the pattern to be more choppy with warmer/cooler cycles as it gets closer.

We have seen an increase in AAM recently as well so we are at least digging out of the long term negative period we have seen.
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smast16 said:
Damn thing was practically spot on for me


View attachment 92422

0.07" since yesterday with a 6 day grand total of....
0.53"

@NickyBGuarantee 'd to be wrong.
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I’m sorry you did not get your rain. Many others did. Some didn’t that’s how weather works unfortunately. I’m sure that hose will work just as well.
 
SD said:
The long range pattern in the means isn't a beauty by any stretch but if you are wanting something more fall like it'll work but I wouldn't be surprised for the pattern to be more choppy with warmer/cooler cycles as it gets closer.

We have seen an increase in AAM recently as well so we are at least digging out of the long term negative period we have seen.
View attachment 92421
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The bumpy road begins … hopefully we can maybe get some severe weather out of one of these bumps and make things interesting before we transition over
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’m sorry you did not get your rain. Many others did. Some didn’t that’s how weather works unfortunately. I’m sure that hose will work just as well.
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With your keen ability to not accept any accountability, you're definitely well on your way to becoming a heck of a Meteorologist. ?
 
NorthDFWwx said:
With your keen ability to not accept any accountability, you're definitely well on your way to becoming a heck of a Meteorologist. ?
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Yes I was wrong that smashes own backyard didn’t receive a full inch of rain. Unfortunately meteorologists don’t predict for backyards but more so an area as a whole. Many other areas received at least 1 inch of rain with some areas receiving enough rain to cause flash flooding. You can’t please everyone unfortunately. And you won’t be right for everyone’s backyard as well .. comes with the job. I should have been more clear as to say some areas have the potential to not reach the rainfall potential some models had printed out as rain could be more spotty than expected. I’ll try to do better in the future.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yes I was wrong that smashes own backyard didn’t receive a full inch of rain. Unfortunately meteorologists don’t predict for backyards but more so an area as a whole. Many other areas received at least 1 inch of rain with some areas receiving enough rain to cause flash flooding. You can’t please everyone unfortunately. And you won’t be right for everyone’s backyard as well .. comes with the job. I should have been more clear as to say some areas have the potential to not reach the rainfall potential some models had printed out as rain could be more spotty than expected. I’ll try to do better in the future.
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NickyBGuarantee*
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yes I was wrong that smashes own backyard didn’t receive a full inch of rain. Unfortunately meteorologists don’t predict for backyards but more so an area as a whole. Many other areas received at least 1 inch of rain with some areas receiving enough rain to cause flash flooding. You can’t please everyone unfortunately. And you won’t be right for everyone’s backyard as well .. comes with the job. I should have been more clear as to say some areas have the potential to not reach the rainfall potential some models had printed out as rain could be more spotty than expected. I’ll try to do better in the future.
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BRad P does!
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yes I was wrong that smashes own backyard didn’t receive a full inch of rain. Unfortunately meteorologists don’t predict for backyards but more so an area as a whole. Many other areas received at least 1 inch of rain with some areas receiving enough rain to cause flash flooding. You can’t please everyone unfortunately. And you won’t be right for everyone’s backyard as well .. comes with the job. I should have been more clear as to say some areas have the potential to not reach the rainfall potential some models had printed out as rain could be more spotty than expected. I’ll try to do better in the future.
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Honestly last nights rain was a pain to really nail down with limited consistency between models and even inconsistencies between each run. It certainly was more focused and farther west than I was thinking and as a whole not as widespread.
 
SD said:
Honestly last nights rain was a pain to really nail down with limited consistency between models and even inconsistencies between each run. It certainly was more focused and farther west than I was thinking and as a whole not as widespread.
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It was quite annoying as every model and even every run of the HRRR seemed to pin point a different location of max rain each new run. I guess that’s what you get when you have low pressure trying to organize off the coast along with upper level energy nearby. Still no excuse to get someone’s backyard rainfall reading incorrect. I’ll have to be more careful with my words when I end up representing a forecast area in the future.
 
SD said:
That 18z gfs didn't disappoint too bad it's likely not right
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It’s been consistent in trying to introduce some sort of bowling ball down here after our first “fall front” 17th-20 obviously that solution will change wildly as the days progress but I assume we see the models converge on an idea in the next week … until then tho the heat will more than likely hold until that front next weekend
 
Webberweather53 said:
Only gonna be in the 70s here tomorrow. Today was “hot” with a high of 90 and dews in the 30s-40s. ?

Keep the SE ridge a comin!
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I ask out of curiosity but how does 90 degree weather feel with dew points that low .. is sweat even produced or does it feel like a nice spring day i dont know im Curious
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I ask out of curiosity but how does 90 degree weather feel with dew points that low .. is sweat even produced or does it feel like a nice spring day i dont know im Curious
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It really does feel like a nice spring day here. I’ll take a 90/39 over a 80-85/60 day in nc. It doesn’t really feel hot til the temps get to about 95. The weather in the SW US is underrated. Warmest part of the year here comes in June then it’s all downhill after that
 
ForsythSnow said:
Ended the event slightly under at 4.12". Still a lot of rain for a few days in October but not as extreme as the 5 to 6 they expected. Had everything to do with the rain splitting into AL and SC vs streaming through GA like the modeling initially suggested
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We were sitting just over 4.5 and then yesterday there was a very localized down pour that landed us at 5.43 for the event.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It really does feel like a nice spring day here. I’ll take a 90/39 over a 80-85/60 day in nc. It doesn’t really feel hot til the temps get to about 95. The weather in the SW US is underrated. Warmest part of the year here comes in June then it’s all downhill after that
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Bingo ! I don’t think people are aware just how pleasant places in New Mexico are . If I had to go west it’s where I would choose to live ! Socorro perhaps .
 
Lickwx said:
Bingo ! I don’t think people are aware just how pleasant places in New Mexico are . If I had to go west it’s where I would choose to live ! Socorro perhaps .
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It’s very pleasant. My wife and I spent a few in Vegas a couple years ago and when we got off the plane it was 93 degrees, but the dewpoint was in the 40s. Also the temperatures drop off very quickly within 30 minutes of sunset… so most of that week we got 90 degree highs but the evenings were in the 60s.
 
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