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Pattern October Thread

SD said:
That's impressive
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It’s interesting because it can go either way, we destroy the SPV and shuffle the pattern completely, or we get into a pure La Niña influence and get a cold vortex stuck there around AK, willing to go with us changing the pattern, honestly what we’re dealing with right now seems to be a earlier version of the H5 pattern we dealt with last early winter, ridging in Canada/Arctic and little bits of ridging around us, with some cutoffs around us and a constant Bering sea/Aleutian and AK trough, just thought that was a bit interesting DB37C0AC-5752-451A-AC65-CA6F6F70D0EE.png5553F87D-0AF4-45F3-AA5B-D8A8C02539D8.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s interesting because it can go either way, we destroy the SPV and shuffle the pattern completely, or we get into a pure La Niña influence and get a cold vortex stuck there around AK, willing to go with us changing the pattern, honestly what we’re dealing with right now seems to be a earlier version of the H5 pattern we dealt with last early winter, ridging in Canada/Arctic and little bits of ridging around us, with some cutoffs around us and a constant Bering sea/Aleutian and AK trough, just thought that was a bit interesting View attachment 91793View attachment 91794
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Yeah it's very similar to last year. The -NAO pac ridge signal is there on some of the analogs but it's hard to see how we get there unless something like the 12z op gfs is right and we just start pounding away with -naos now that just cycle along for most of winter.
 
GaWx said:
@SD
Bump. Is it too late to add "Hotober" to the voting list? It was accidentally left off as it was the 2nd suggestion. There are still a few hours left! Or maybe extend the voting hours?
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You'll need a pretty massive campaign to garner enough votes. Be sure not to violate campaign finance laws in the process. Good luck!
 
Not sure many realize this, but we had a -nao/ao with a +qbo last winter. Was it all contributed to low solar? Now we have a -qbo. Do we have enough low solar to still get that -nao/ao this winter?
 
Mr. Golf said:
Not sure many realize this, but we had a -nao/ao with a +qbo last winter. Was it all contributed to low solar? Now we have a -qbo. Do we have enough low solar to still get that -nao/ao this winter?
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No
 
GaWx said:
@SD
Bump. Is it too late to add "Hotober" to the voting list? It was accidentally left off as it was the 2nd suggestion. There are still a few hours left! Or maybe extend the voting hours?
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I missed it sorry about that. We can only have 10 options on the poll so I would have to scrap this one and restart. Can we meet in the middle since last year was named hotober and I'll be sure to get your names on the list in the future?
 
SD said:
I missed it sorry about that. We can only have 10 options on the poll so I would have to scrap this one and restart. Can we meet in the middle since last year was named hotober and I'll be sure to get your names on the list in the future?
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That's fine. No worries! I'm just playing. I don't really care that much but I find it funny that the first half of the month is headed in that direction.

Last October was actually "October Odyssey" per this:

October Odyssey | SouthernWX
 
GaWx said:
That's fine. No worries! I'm just playing. I don't really care that much but I find it funny that the first half of the month is headed in that direction.

Last October was actually "October Odyssey" per this:

October Odyssey | SouthernWX
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You are right it was 2019. I feel like I'm a year behind
 
GaWx said:
Past October thread names here were interesting:

2020: October Odyssey
2019: Hotober (not my thread)
2018: October Oscitance
2017: Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October
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Nice to see we've finally matured
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
To be honest for at least most of the Carolinas the low temps are making those warmer 2M temp maps more scary then it is in reality, daytime temps are amazing, but those lows are pretty warm View attachment 91801View attachment 91802
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I was just about to bring this up … really after this Sunday I don’t see “Heat” being that much of a thing anymore .. while yes those night are warmer so averages look more deadly but day time Highs barely being able to break 80 and really staying in the mid 70s .. quite amazing if you ask me
 
Also models are starting to look very interesting as we continue the trend of lower H5 heights across much of the country as we start heading into mid next week and beyond .. euro has basically the whole US in a large trough type of deal come the end of its run … it’s clear to see there is a pattern change coming and it’s easy to see when models have been all over the place with solutions in the medium to long range .. exciting stuff really
 
Also strat warming going on right now and over the next month or so really continues to excite my thought on the potential of an early bout of winter here in the SE for maybe December as a whole .. what happens after that all bets are off but I’m excited about prospects of an early taste of winter (at least for SE standards as we don’t usually start any type of real winter potential until January)
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Also strat warming going on right now and over the next month or so really continues to excite my thought on the potential of an early bout of winter here in the SE for maybe December as a whole .. what happens after that all bets are off but I’m excited about prospects of an early taste of winter (at least for SE standards as we don’t usually start any type of real winter potential until January)
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Something like a December 2018 redux is what I’m thinking .. obviously doesn’t mean the entire winter is good but we get a possible early chance
 
Lickwx said:
How did the forecast go from warm sunny pleasant to cloudy muggy . Shoot . All I want is sunshine and warmth . Also those wishing for severe … won’t happen . We get like 1 severe event a year . The other 200 never pan out .
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Brick??
 
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