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Pattern October Thread

mydoortotheworld said:
These are the most annoying set of maps I've ever had the displeasure of laying my eyes on. BRING. AUTUMN. NOW
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What is your expectation of "AUTUMN" in the deep south?

Met. Autumn started on 9/1 and Atlanta's current average high/low is 80*F/61*F.
 
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I'd gladly take the 0z euro and 6z gfs but I swear the heavy rain stays in the 144+ time frame every run. It looks like someone is going to get a multiple inch rain event next week but pinning down how far S/SW the upper low digs and how long it'll be around are the hardest parts. I'm also skeptical of the upper low backing well S/SW after getting burned on the upper low this week.
 
SD said:
I'd gladly take the 0z euro and 6z gfs but I swear the heavy rain stays in the 144+ time frame every run. It looks like someone is going to get a multiple inch rain event next week but pinning down how far S/SW the upper low digs and how long it'll be around are the hardest parts. I'm also skeptical of the upper low backing well S/SW after getting burned on the upper low this week.
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Looks really pleasant for us over here in AL for pretty much the whole run after Sunday.
 
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As bad as it looks I'm actually interested to see where this goes but it may just be the gefs playing tricks and the eps is a total turd
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_50.png
 
SD said:
I'd gladly take the 0z euro and 6z gfs but I swear the heavy rain stays in the 144+ time frame every run. It looks like someone is going to get a multiple inch rain event next week but pinning down how far S/SW the upper low digs and how long it'll be around are the hardest parts. I'm also skeptical of the upper low backing well S/SW after getting burned on the upper low this week.
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Honestly yeah I’m looking forward to how the models deal with this set up regardless it’s looking like upslope flow on the mountains will certainly be in play so I expect them to see a lot of rain if the set up stays how it’s looking .. but even for us and other places in the SE this is certainly an event we need with how much rain we haven’t seen around here
 
SD said:
Yeah you guys might end up on the west side of the upper low or under it. Much better place to be to see some cooler/drier fall like weather
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It’s kind of the tail of two worlds .. one side gets less rain but cool and nice fall conditions while we receive higher rain totals but also increased humidity .. luckily though the temps stay lower because of clouds and such so all in all we are going to be winning .. also after all this rain and upper level low situation we should see a drop to fall like conditions once the weather clears
 
Avalanche said:
Didnt realize N. America had that kind of snowpack yet.
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There isn't much right now but with the trough in AK and NW Canada over the coming weeks they should build some. I think most of the eps run had AK and Northern Canada below freezing at 850 for most of the run
 
Give me an October 2010 redux. Yes, it was warm, but it was pleasantly warm. It was like 75-80 during the day, and crispy upper 40s at night. Loved it!
 
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