Pattern October Thread

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L !! Source region roast means cold doesn’t transport like it should, the cutoff/trough over us still results in AN temps !! Oooooof View attachment 91680
There's no arctic connection in the upcoming pattern and there is really no mechanism to deliver cold. The pieces of the upper low are pacific origin and from near Greenland and the jet is roaring in off the pac. This isn't that dissimilar to last winter a -nao coupled with a flat pac=right around normal.
 
to be honest it's hard to buy much on the models past days 3/4. Big abnormally strong block near Hudson Bay, recurving typhoon, potential deep trough just off the west coast, sams eventual fate in the north Atlantic, and a potential tropical system off the SE coast all are going to lead to model chaos and wild run to run swings and extreme surface looks. Enjoy the ride
100%. I just wanted to reply to an absurd 240 hr 2m temp map that has about a 15% chance of verifying with a 300hr+ 2m temp map that has about a 5% chance of verifying.
 
There's no arctic connection in the upcoming pattern and there is really no mechanism to deliver cold. The pieces of the upper low are pacific origin and from near Greenland and the jet is roaring in off the pac. This isn't that dissimilar to last winter a -nao coupled with a flat pac=right around normal.

This pattern sucks, and has sucked for a while now.
 
100%. I just wanted to reply to an absurd 240 hr 2m temp map that has about a 15% chance of verifying with a 300hr+ 2m temp map that has about a 5% chance of verifying.
90% of what gets posted in here has a 5% chance of verifying with a 95% chance it will be followed with an "oof" or a "L" or a "W", all of which is 99% wishcasting for your desired outcome. Leads to 100% chance of being annoyed
 
This pattern sucks, and has sucked for a while now.
Good chance we don't get out of it for a while. Best chance to see anything different will be upper lows under the nao, recurving typhoons to potentially briefly shake up, and maybe hurricanes from the Caribbean. But it's kind of do we sacrifice a potentially better winter for a better pattern now? What we have out there right now has at least a shot a disrupting the pv so that at least makes me feel better lol
 
90% of what gets posted in here has a 5% chance of verifying with a 95% chance it will be followed with an "oof" or a "L" or a "W", all of which is 99% wishcasting for your desired outcome. Leads to 100% chance of being annoyed
Don’t forget the 1% chance of a meanerator forgetting to use his CPAP machine overnight which leads to a grumpy ole comment every 20 posts or so ?? ( jk? ily)
 
90% of what gets posted in here has a 5% chance of verifying with a 95% chance it will be followed with an "oof" or a "L" or a "W", all of which is 99% wishcasting for your desired outcome. Leads to 100% chance of being annoyed

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