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Pattern October Thread

smast16 said:
So too much Wedge for Storms, but not enough Wedge for Wudge? So, 70's / Cloudy / muggy, but no rain?

Don't you just love torching our source region?
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Yeah I mean the sfc high was centered in SE Canada on the gfs. You aren't going to drive that much cool to cold this far south especially when the high isn't of arctic origin anyway. Couple that with a lack of precip in the Wedge and its 70s and mostly cloudy. ?
 
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Lickwx said:
To those feeling anxious for fall weather : the averages have dropped some 12 degrees since peak summer now . It’s pleasant time no matter how red the maps are looking .
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Yep. 80s/upper 70s aint hot weather at all. That’s nice weather, nothing to freak out over
 
SD said:
Here it comes. Really frustrating setup unless we get a fire hose with a SE flow. Probably too wedged for storms not wedged enough to be super cool. Just mehView attachment 91631
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It’ll trend colder! Models always underestimate the strength of the wedge! CMC is best on thermals for the wedge! ?
 
Have to wonder if the op euro is over doing the retrogression of the upper low. It at one point retrograded the low along the east coast this week to near New Orleans
 
ensembles ended off with this with a western trough/eastern NA ridge and I wondered why 83FF3B1A-B560-41CF-8D4F-CBF9D68A68C8.png7927B57F-5452-4936-B1FE-CF5F9A1CDAF8.png880A3BA8-FAD3-4954-B9F1-317CD274700A.png338CB4C1-C2CF-44BC-B23A-13BF4D7BD539.png6B7AF78E-34F7-4C00-A8F3-7FCCB2FFD53C.png161E045A-9541-4F05-B810-51A8450FE611.png
then I saw why lol, tropical forcing around the MC/WPAC, which is typically gives us warmer weather around this time of the year, especially as we head deeper into fall, wonder what AAM charts from the EPS/GEFS look like, pattern looks very La nina esque 267B04F9-A076-49DF-9B38-CB9204EB268E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ensembles ended off with this with a western trough/eastern NA ridge and I wondered why View attachment 91663View attachment 91661View attachment 91665View attachment 91664View attachment 91662View attachment 91666
then I saw why lol, tropical forcing around the MC/WPAC, which is typically gives us warmer weather around this time of the year, especially as we head deeper into fall, wonder what AAM charts from the EPS/GEFS look like, pattern looks very La nina esque View attachment 91667
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LA Nina esque? This has been the base state for Tropical forcing in winter since sometime in 2018. Like legit MJO.exe has stopped working kinda stuff.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ensembles ended off with this with a western trough/eastern NA ridge and I wondered why View attachment 91663View attachment 91661View attachment 91665View attachment 91664View attachment 91662View attachment 91666
then I saw why lol, tropical forcing around the MC/WPAC, which is typically gives us warmer weather around this time of the year, especially as we head deeper into fall, wonder what AAM charts from the EPS/GEFS look like, pattern looks very La nina esque View attachment 91667
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This is likely tied to the very warm MC/WPAC that has dominated the last few years.
 
As we get closer looks like models are trying to key in on some CAD putting a wrench in some of the warmer weather mid next week .. almost looks miller B ish kind of what we went through all last winter as we approached the short range
 
Business really picked up on the overnight runs. Euro with a big change to the upper low. Gfs and euro now have something tropical lurking around close by as well. Should be an interesting 12z set of runs
 
SD said:
Business really picked up on the overnight runs. Euro with a big change to the upper low. Gfs and euro now have something tropical lurking around close by as well. Should be an interesting 12z set of runs
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I just hope that heat release starting around 240 don't happen. Texas to Nebraska and east to NC will be upper 80'sand 90's.
 
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smast16 said:
I just hope that heat release starting around 240 don't happen. Texas to Nebraska and east to NC will be upper 80'sand 90's.
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to be honest it's hard to buy much on the models past days 3/4. Big abnormally strong block near Hudson Bay, recurving typhoon, potential deep trough just off the west coast, sams eventual fate in the north Atlantic, and a potential tropical system off the SE coast all are going to lead to model chaos and wild run to run swings and extreme surface looks. Enjoy the ride
 
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