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Pattern October Thread

Myfrotho704_ said:
ensembles ended off with this with a western trough/eastern NA ridge and I wondered why View attachment 91663View attachment 91661View attachment 91665View attachment 91664View attachment 91662View attachment 91666
then I saw why lol, tropical forcing around the MC/WPAC, which is typically gives us warmer weather around this time of the year, especially as we head deeper into fall, wonder what AAM charts from the EPS/GEFS look like, pattern looks very La nina esque View attachment 91667
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LA Nina esque? This has been the base state for Tropical forcing in winter since sometime in 2018. Like legit MJO.exe has stopped working kinda stuff.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
ensembles ended off with this with a western trough/eastern NA ridge and I wondered why View attachment 91663View attachment 91661View attachment 91665View attachment 91664View attachment 91662View attachment 91666
then I saw why lol, tropical forcing around the MC/WPAC, which is typically gives us warmer weather around this time of the year, especially as we head deeper into fall, wonder what AAM charts from the EPS/GEFS look like, pattern looks very La nina esque View attachment 91667
Click to expand...

This is likely tied to the very warm MC/WPAC that has dominated the last few years.
 
As we get closer looks like models are trying to key in on some CAD putting a wrench in some of the warmer weather mid next week .. almost looks miller B ish kind of what we went through all last winter as we approached the short range
 
Business really picked up on the overnight runs. Euro with a big change to the upper low. Gfs and euro now have something tropical lurking around close by as well. Should be an interesting 12z set of runs
 
SD said:
Business really picked up on the overnight runs. Euro with a big change to the upper low. Gfs and euro now have something tropical lurking around close by as well. Should be an interesting 12z set of runs
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I just hope that heat release starting around 240 don't happen. Texas to Nebraska and east to NC will be upper 80'sand 90's.
 
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smast16 said:
I just hope that heat release starting around 240 don't happen. Texas to Nebraska and east to NC will be upper 80'sand 90's.
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to be honest it's hard to buy much on the models past days 3/4. Big abnormally strong block near Hudson Bay, recurving typhoon, potential deep trough just off the west coast, sams eventual fate in the north Atlantic, and a potential tropical system off the SE coast all are going to lead to model chaos and wild run to run swings and extreme surface looks. Enjoy the ride
 
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