It really is hard to get a good idea when the sample size of 3rd year Niñas are so small. The last one in 2000/01 had fairly cool fall that lead into a quite cold first half of winterIt is interesting that one of the other times we had a third year Nina it snowed in October here after a big torch in September(which that part definitely happened this year)
So makes you wonder. But I won't believe anything til we're way closer in time. The issue with third year Nina's is there's only like 2 or 3 analogs so it's hard to pin anything down