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Pattern October '22

olhausen said:
11 days and counting without a drop of rain here. It looks like it could go to 20 days without rain which is incredibly rare in this area. Average annual rainfall here is 49 inches and it’s rare to go even 7 days without rain at least once so this is definitely a noteworthy weather period.
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Been dry since September 3rd here.
 
Counting the days, we need rain badly here in the south.
 
Arcc said:
Crazy how the biggest dry period hasn’t come from a big hot heat dome, but a nice cool NW flow.
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Cool at night yes, but very warm in the afternoons. Non stop 80s for the forseeable future for much of the deep south. Maybe even close to 90 some areas tomorrow.
 
olhausen said:
11 days and counting without a drop of rain here. It looks like it could go to 20 days without rain which is incredibly rare in this area. Average annual rainfall here is 49 inches and it’s rare to go even 7 days without rain at least once so this is definitely a noteworthy weather period.
Click to expand...
Haven’t seen rain since September 10th here. Looks like we will go another 7-10 days if not more.
 
Today isn't even that bad but it's all downhill from here... This could be our last high above 85 til next year. NWS has 68 on Saturday... For a high!! Unfortunately the rain continues to be lacking like the rest of yall although I've heard talk about next week we'll seeScreenshot_20221006-155100.png
 
weatherfide said:
Euro says, "I hear you, SD, order up!"...View attachment 122849
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Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into Canadaec-fast_z500_mslp_nhem_fh144-240.gif

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme eps-fast_z500a_nhem_11 (1).png

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
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-EPO doing work!
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...

When was the last time this kind of set up happened in October? And what kind of winter did we have?


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SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...
I’m no expert on maps, but I could get snow out of that look, I think!?
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...
One of the biggest takeaways on that for me is something you mentioned earlier. The PV is continuously getting stretched and unable to strengthen. That could certainly bode well for the first half of the season
 
Good grief. Not only is the GFS advertising for a very early frost compared to normal but it’s going full on with bringing the potential for our first freeze to come a little more than a half month early! Impressive cold for mid October especially for our area.
High temps for October 20th full sun.1665097440309.png
 
Well, DBQ total September precip was .62
Picked up .02 yesterday!
No rain in sight ! GFS gives no hope through end of the run! It’s gonna be a craptastic winter for snow, if something drastic doesn’t change! It’s Shetley dry up here! ?9F9F2078-DE54-4F98-BA3F-44FF92DFEF70.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I disagree, well depending on what you want .. if u want cold I disagree .. when wavelengths get longer this provides the East coast a big opportunity to feed us all cold air from the arctic regions. The +PNA is what led to us last winter to having a month of winter weather opportunities in the south. We didn’t have a -NAO though which didn’t allow the storms to slow down and really could have brought us more big time snow or ice events. We want both things to happen. But having a +PNA brings us the cold air.
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That is correct. The Pacific rules the weather here in winter, when it comes to getting the cold air. It's hard to get cold with a crappy look in the Pacific basin.
 
Maybe some frost for those colder locations (which is not me..):

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold
front Saturday morning. Dewpoints will drop into the 40s during the
day, and continuing to lower into the mid-30s for some areas
Saturday night. A strong and cold surface high will build from the
Plains Saturday into the TN Valley Saturday night. Cold air
advection, light winds and clear skies will all be the right
ingredients for optimal radiational cooling for a chilly night. Lows
will range from the upper 30s N to mid-40s S. A few of the usual
cold spots may observe patchy frost and temps in the mid-30s.

&&
 
All the ensembles and now Operational keep the east and in particular the Ohio valley and Southeast in a trough heavy pattern with tons of cold shots coming down from Canada. Days with highs in the low 60's and upper 50's as a mean. That's some serious Fall, as in like middle November type cooler weather.
 
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