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Pattern October '22

12z Euro was pretty stormy. Also, Eric Webb mentioned persistent IO/Maritime Continent forcing is allowing for +pna for a while. Now, this is fall, but if that persisted into winter with that type forcing, would that be a bad sign for cold air here? Just curious
 
The H5 Look on the GFS is a thing of beauty. About as classic of a look as you could get for cold. If this was even late November that look would produce snow potential.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I really hope we can have some of this for the winter. Maybe it can flip to warm in November then back in December or January


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This is the old discussion/theory about pattern flips leading up to winter; which I usually bring up ha ha. I for one do not like seeing an eastern trough at the end of October into the first three weeks of November (no big Halloween storm, no South Carolina low country snow, no cold in general). I do like seeing this early/mid October cold. Hopefully we go into Indian Summer right before Halloween, and it stays relatively warm leading up to Thanksgiving. Afterwards, let it get cold for the first of December and maybe that sets the predominant pattern for winter. Don't have anything to back this up except for the many years I've seen the lead ups to winter. I can't count the times we've had a cold start in late October, and everybody gets excited thinking this is going to be a really cold winter. But I also can't count the number of times it stays warm all the way up to Thanksgiving and everybody screams winter is dead. And then we end up with a decent year (snow and cold wise).
 
FallsLake said:
This is the old discussion/theory about pattern flips leading up to winter; which I usually bring up ha ha. I for one do not like seeing an eastern trough at the end of October into the first three weeks of November (no big Halloween storm, no South Carolina low country snow, no cold in general). I do like seeing this early/mid October cold. Hopefully we go into Indian Summer right before Halloween, and it stays relatively warm leading up to Thanksgiving. Afterwards, let it get cold for the first of December and maybe that sets the predominant pattern for winter. Don't have anything to back this up except for the many years I've seen the lead ups to winter. I can't count the times we've had a cold start in late October, and everybody gets excited thinking this is going to be a really cold winter. But I also can't count the number of times it stays warm all the way up to Thanksgiving and everybody screams winter is dead. And then we end up with a decent year (snow and cold wise).
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I think most of us is just thrill to see a pattern change period.
 
36.7 at 6am but then my internet went out so I’m assuming we hit 36. Had to be at church early so I’m not sure if frost but I’m sure there was some at the bottom of the hill if nothing else.
 
55 here as we approach noon. This feels like a late November type of day with a breeze, clouds, and cold
 
BHS1975 said:
Trees are confused here. Same type trees with some changing quite a bit and some still all green.


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I’m seeing the same thing here. The trees typically change first like oak and maples are changing and changing quickly… meanwhile ones that typically take longer haven’t really shown any signs yet. Personally I would like to get leaves changed and off the trees quicker than the last few years… I would like to not still be blowing leaves the week of Thanksgiving
 
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