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Pattern October '22

olhausen said:
11 days and counting without a drop of rain here. It looks like it could go to 20 days without rain which is incredibly rare in this area. Average annual rainfall here is 49 inches and it’s rare to go even 7 days without rain at least once so this is definitely a noteworthy weather period.
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Been dry since September 3rd here.
 
Counting the days, we need rain badly here in the south.
 
Arcc said:
Crazy how the biggest dry period hasn’t come from a big hot heat dome, but a nice cool NW flow.
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Cool at night yes, but very warm in the afternoons. Non stop 80s for the forseeable future for much of the deep south. Maybe even close to 90 some areas tomorrow.
 
olhausen said:
11 days and counting without a drop of rain here. It looks like it could go to 20 days without rain which is incredibly rare in this area. Average annual rainfall here is 49 inches and it’s rare to go even 7 days without rain at least once so this is definitely a noteworthy weather period.
Click to expand...
Haven’t seen rain since September 10th here. Looks like we will go another 7-10 days if not more.
 
weatherfide said:
Euro says, "I hear you, SD, order up!"...View attachment 122849
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Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into Canadaec-fast_z500_mslp_nhem_fh144-240.gif

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme eps-fast_z500a_nhem_11 (1).png

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
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-EPO doing work!
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...

When was the last time this kind of set up happened in October? And what kind of winter did we have?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...
I’m no expert on maps, but I could get snow out of that look, I think!?
 
SD said:
Interesting setup coming. If we get the pacific and high latitudes to play along op Euro pulls the tpv out of Siberia and launches it south into CanadaView attachment 122853

The eps is more muted likely to chaos within a large number of members but gives the same general theme View attachment 122854

If we go +pna/-ao it'll get chilly at minimum if we can really get the tpv drawn south we'd be looking at some once in a decade type cold for mid October. The only thing I don't like is the cutoff south of the western ridge that could cause some issues in getting the solid cold well south but this is so far away it's not worth worrying about now
Click to expand...
One of the biggest takeaways on that for me is something you mentioned earlier. The PV is continuously getting stretched and unable to strengthen. That could certainly bode well for the first half of the season
 
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