• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern October '22

I love Fall!

gfs_T2m_us_54.png


? ?
 
JHS said:
If the 12z GFS is right I'll be halfway there. No rain on it through day 16 after Ian is gone. This might be like 2016, when wildfires became a big story in the mountains. That pattern only broke late in November and this will probably like that.
Click to expand...
That year was a lot drier leading up to fall. I'm speaking for North Georgia but our creeks are high for this time of year and the water table is fine. I'm at almost 40" YTD on rainfall and that is with the Tempest being down for several weeks due to my move. It may be dry this month for sure but the sun angle is lowering and the trees are going dormant. There isn't much damage that can be done.
 
JHS said:
I would not at all shocked to see ATL and much of the southeast go rainless this entire month. Not 1 drop.
Click to expand...
I got 25k that says it rains at least 1 time in Southern NC. I’ll record with time stamp if you’re game!
 
jeremyt said:
I got 25k that says it rains at least 1 time in Southern NC. I’ll record with time stamp if you’re game!
Click to expand...
Can we put your 25k against Shetley's not posting for a year if it doesn't rain 1 drop in October and the temp does not get to 100 or better for 10 straight days in Jonesville?
 
EmersonGA said:
That year was a lot drier leading up to fall. I'm speaking for North Georgia but our creeks are high for this time of year and the water table is fine. I'm at almost 40" YTD on rainfall and that is with the Tempest being down for several weeks due to my move. It may be dry this month for sure but the sun angle is lowering and the trees are going dormant. There isn't much damage that can be done.
Click to expand...
Atlanta has 0.99" in September this year and in 2016 they had 3.43" in September. So was it really drier in 2016 at the end of September than it is now ? This has to be one of the driest Septembers on record in Atlanta.
 
Rain Cold said:
Can we put your 25k against Shetley's not posting for a year if it doesn't rain 1 drop in October and the temp does not get to 100 or better for 10 straight days in Jonesville?
Click to expand...
Nah, I take bets I can win! Sat morn is the 1st so I figured rain then. ?
 
Snowlover87 said:
Atlanta has 0.99" in September this year and in 2016 they had 3.43" in September. So was it really drier in 2016 at the end of September than it is now ? This has to be one of the driest Septembers on record in Atlanta.
Click to expand...
Why don’t you pull up the whole year. Droughts and wildfires aren’t made in a month. December 15 was very wet but I don’t think 2016 was very wet.

Edit: I looked it up. After February every month looks well below average leading up to September. Slight of 39” for the year so very dry.
 
EmersonGA said:
Why don’t you pull up the whole year. Droughts and wildfires aren’t made in a month. December 15 was very wet but I don’t think 2016 was very wet.

Edit: I looked it up. After February every month looks well below average leading up to September. Slight of 39” for the year so very dry.
Click to expand...
To your point, while Atlanta may have been wetter in Sep 2016 … it didn’t rain many days … pretty dry.
 

Attachments

  • 1664514755483.png
    1664514755483.png
    326.8 KB · Views: 18
HugeSnowStick said:
Totally bummed we will not get one drop from Ian.
Click to expand...

I agree. In fact, my area isn't even going to end up with all that much compared to previous runs. These models didn't do so great. I saw all the "ATL is dry" posts and I figured they were kinda crazy.. but now seeing what is ultimately happening... even the Upstate will struggle at this rate.
 
Something should be done about the models. They are getting worse, not better. At this rate we will be back where we were in the 1970-80's before too long. Hopefully they'll be wrong again in showing not a drop of rain through mid October for many of us.
 
JHS said:
Something should be done about the models. They are getting worse, not better. At this rate we will be back where we were in the 1970-80's before too long. Hopefully they'll be wrong again in showing not a drop of rain through mid October for many of us.
Click to expand...
I thought the Ukie and NAM did fairly well. The Euro was ok. The GFS and CMC were totally out to lunch.
 
weatherfide said:
I thought the Ukie and NAM did fairly well. The Euro was ok. The GFS and CMC were totally out to lunch.
Click to expand...
It just annoys me to no end that our local Mets use the Euro religiously, even when it was abhorrently wrong. They were forecasting rain as late as yesterday when it was apparent to anyone on this board by Wednesday it was not going to rain in this area based on model accuracy.
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm already seeing some change in the leaves where I am lol.
Click to expand...
Yeah.. some of the oaks are beginning to get some yellow in the tops of the trees. Definitely a change from the last few years when we haven’t really seen much color until the end of October
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top