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Pattern October '22

The Mississippi River in Memphis tn is -7.8 feet, which puts it the 8th lowest reading ever. Pretty dry around here also. La niña is here
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH:

***
The weekend/early next week will feature surface ridging building
across the area along with below normal temperatures and continued
dry conditions. Highs will reach the low/mid 60s, with lows generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40. Some of this morning`s 13Z NBM
guidance is hinting at mid 30s Sunday morning along the NC/VA border
under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Too early to be certain
of an early-season frost but this will need to be monitored.
***
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Man, all you guys with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s; I'm jealous! My coldest forecast is for a high of 69 and low of 43 on Sunday. Heck I'm supposed to be 81 on Friday, I must be getting skipped!

For real though, this is GORGEOUS weather, what a nice fall so far!?
 
I haven’t had rain in almost 2 weeks and it doesn’t look like any is coming in the near future. This has to be one of the driest periods since I moved here in 2006. strange year because I sit at 47 inches of rain for the year which is on pace to be above my average of 49 inches. There’s been multiple dry periods this year followed by some heavy rain.
E21CAC61-364A-4B4F-B82E-9B0587ED0B33.png
 
Other than a couple of days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday generally speaking) both the GEFS and EPS are very trough happy in the east. The EPS builds a little ridging over the Northeast and keeps the rest of the east more neutral but that screams CAD potential of some kind.
 
iGRXY said:
Other than a couple of days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday generally speaking) both the GEFS and EPS are very trough happy in the east. The EPS builds a little ridging over the Northeast and keeps the rest of the east more neutral but that screams CAD potential of some kind.
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Yeah, you ain't gettin' 90's with this look at day 10 (GEFS)

1664915047676.png
 
Brent said:
The day 10 Euro and CMC here have a winter preview ? I don't buy it but it is the first runs I've seen showing this
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I think it’s just as likely as what the Op GFS was spitting out for lunch.
 
Wow this cool pattern looks to really have some staying power! Amazing especially with averages continuing to go down by the time we see a flip to maybe warmer temps hopefully our averages are nice and comfortable so we end up with a really nice fall. 1664924711879.png
 
Chazwin said:
I think it’s just as likely as what the Op GFS was spitting out for lunch.
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It is interesting that one of the other times we had a third year Nina it snowed in October here after a big torch in September(which that part definitely happened this year)

So makes you wonder. But I won't believe anything til we're way closer in time. The issue with third year Nina's is there's only like 2 or 3 analogs so it's hard to pin anything down
 
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Brent said:
It is interesting that one of the other times we had a third year Nina it snowed in October here after a big torch in September(which that part definitely happened this year)

So makes you wonder. But I won't believe anything til we're way closer in time. The issue with third year Nina's is there's only like 2 or 3 analogs so it's hard to pin anything down
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It really is hard to get a good idea when the sample size of 3rd year Niñas are so small. The last one in 2000/01 had fairly cool fall that lead into a quite cold first half of winter
 
I sure hope we ain’t wasting our cold to early. Other than that it feels great out
 
Brent said:
Yeah that's the year it snowed here in October. Labor Day that year hit 111 in Dallas for reference. It was a big flip
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That was also the year that much of the Carolinas had a widespread 2-4” snowfall event a few days before Thanksgiving.
 
Models seem to agree on a little bit of pushing around and elongation of the strat pv in the next few days. Not huge implications on our backyards other than a higher likelihood of a decent cold shot in the 10+ day period. What I like about it is the potential for it to interfere with the seasonal strengthening and may help us have a weaker pv down the line
 
The coolest site to get Polar vortex maps and diagrams. Very cool and free!

gfs_sh-vort3d_20221005_f000_rot000.png



gfs_sh-epvstream_0800K_20221005_f000.png


StratObserve

stratobserve.com
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
A +PNA seems to be dominating the medium and long range guidance. Although wave lengths are still short they are growing longer with the days. We could be actually dealing with a below average October as whole which would be impressive for us.
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Too strong of a +pna isn't good for anybody lol.
 
Itryatgolf said:
Too strong of a +pna isn't good for anybody lol.
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I disagree, well depending on what you want .. if u want cold I disagree .. when wavelengths get longer this provides the East coast a big opportunity to feed us all cold air from the arctic regions. The +PNA is what led to us last winter to having a month of winter weather opportunities in the south. We didn’t have a -NAO though which didn’t allow the storms to slow down and really could have brought us more big time snow or ice events. We want both things to happen. But having a +PNA brings us the cold air.
 
BufordWX said:
We definitely need the rain out in Oklahoma. These past 30 days have been some of the driest on record for this time of the year.View attachment 122824View attachment 122823
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11 days and counting without a drop of rain here. It looks like it could go to 20 days without rain which is incredibly rare in this area. Average annual rainfall here is 49 inches and it’s rare to go even 7 days without rain at least once so this is definitely a noteworthy weather period.
 
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