Pattern October '22

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FallsLake said:
From RAH:

***
The weekend/early next week will feature surface ridging building
across the area along with below normal temperatures and continued
dry conditions. Highs will reach the low/mid 60s, with lows generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40. Some of this morning`s 13Z NBM
guidance is hinting at mid 30s Sunday morning along the NC/VA border
under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Too early to be certain
of an early-season frost but this will need to be monitored.
***
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Man, all you guys with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s; I'm jealous! My coldest forecast is for a high of 69 and low of 43 on Sunday. Heck I'm supposed to be 81 on Friday, I must be getting skipped!

For real though, this is GORGEOUS weather, what a nice fall so far!?
 
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I haven’t had rain in almost 2 weeks and it doesn’t look like any is coming in the near future. This has to be one of the driest periods since I moved here in 2006. strange year because I sit at 47 inches of rain for the year which is on pace to be above my average of 49 inches. There’s been multiple dry periods this year followed by some heavy rain.
E21CAC61-364A-4B4F-B82E-9B0587ED0B33.png
 
Other than a couple of days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday generally speaking) both the GEFS and EPS are very trough happy in the east. The EPS builds a little ridging over the Northeast and keeps the rest of the east more neutral but that screams CAD potential of some kind.
 
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iGRXY said:
Other than a couple of days next week (Tuesday and Wednesday generally speaking) both the GEFS and EPS are very trough happy in the east. The EPS builds a little ridging over the Northeast and keeps the rest of the east more neutral but that screams CAD potential of some kind.
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Yeah, you ain't gettin' 90's with this look at day 10 (GEFS)

1664915047676.png
 
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Chazwin said:
I think it’s just as likely as what the Op GFS was spitting out for lunch.
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It is interesting that one of the other times we had a third year Nina it snowed in October here after a big torch in September(which that part definitely happened this year)

So makes you wonder. But I won't believe anything til we're way closer in time. The issue with third year Nina's is there's only like 2 or 3 analogs so it's hard to pin anything down
 
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