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Pattern October '22

Good grief. Not only is the GFS advertising for a very early frost compared to normal but it’s going full on with bringing the potential for our first freeze to come a little more than a half month early! Impressive cold for mid October especially for our area.
High temps for October 20th full sun.1665097440309.png
 
Well, DBQ total September precip was .62
Picked up .02 yesterday!
No rain in sight ! GFS gives no hope through end of the run! It’s gonna be a craptastic winter for snow, if something drastic doesn’t change! It’s Shetley dry up here! ?9F9F2078-DE54-4F98-BA3F-44FF92DFEF70.png
 
I disagree, well depending on what you want .. if u want cold I disagree .. when wavelengths get longer this provides the East coast a big opportunity to feed us all cold air from the arctic regions. The +PNA is what led to us last winter to having a month of winter weather opportunities in the south. We didn’t have a -NAO though which didn’t allow the storms to slow down and really could have brought us more big time snow or ice events. We want both things to happen. But having a +PNA brings us the cold air.
That is correct. The Pacific rules the weather here in winter, when it comes to getting the cold air. It's hard to get cold with a crappy look in the Pacific basin.
 
Maybe some frost for those colder locations (which is not me..):

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Cold air advection will be in full force behind a departing cold
front Saturday morning. Dewpoints will drop into the 40s during the
day, and continuing to lower into the mid-30s for some areas
Saturday night. A strong and cold surface high will build from the
Plains Saturday into the TN Valley Saturday night. Cold air
advection, light winds and clear skies will all be the right
ingredients for optimal radiational cooling for a chilly night. Lows
will range from the upper 30s N to mid-40s S. A few of the usual
cold spots may observe patchy frost and temps in the mid-30s
.

&&
 
All the ensembles and now Operational keep the east and in particular the Ohio valley and Southeast in a trough heavy pattern with tons of cold shots coming down from Canada. Days with highs in the low 60's and upper 50's as a mean. That's some serious Fall, as in like middle November type cooler weather.
 
Leaves on warp speed, record pace to early peak. Absoloutely gorgeous wx every day this week,today being warmest in the sun. True Indian summer wx feel. Sweater wx tommorow though.
 
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