• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern October '22

Yes , my beloved snow storm is gone at 6z! ?
It really misses the pick up of the EPAC hurricane moisture! Lots of moving parts and time!
Currently 38
 
Gotta love the Plains and La Nina

A reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive Monday,
setting the stage for widespread freezing temperatures in at least
the northern part of the forecast area Tuesday morning, and the
entire area Wednesday morning. Some places will likely see their
coldest temperatures ever recorded for so early in the season
during this upcoming cold snap. Not only will record lows fall,
but afternoon high temperatures will be near record cool maxes
despite full sunshine Tuesday.

But wait there's more

Our temperature roller coaster ride will continue as we head into
late week and next weekend, with a rapid return to unseasonably
warm temperatures. We have raised high temperatures above the NBM
levels and close to the GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers Friday through Sunday,
and there is a good chance this will not be warm enough in many
places. Record or near record heat will be possible in some places
from Friday through next Sunday.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Phase 6 MJO only means one thing. Retrogression of the western US ridge back into the pacific into a GOA —> NPAC ridge. Negative PNA/SER-eastern ridge time boys by later October. Indian summer, torch. I’m back biatchesView attachment 123075View attachment 123076View attachment 123077View attachment 123078
Click to expand...
If this verifies, which with the MJO in phase 6 I think it will, it coincidentally following the progression of the last 3rd year Niña in 2000-01. Much of that October saw cooler than average for the east that switched around to warmer at the end of the month and into the first half of November then switched to much cooler than average from around 11/15 through the first 10 days of January
 
Chazwin said:
If this verifies, which with the MJO in phase 6 I think it will, it coincidentally following the progression of the last 3rd year Niña in 2000-01. Much of that October saw cooler than average for the east that switched around to warmer at the end of the month and into the first half of November then switched to much cooler than average from around 11/15 through the first 10 days of January
Click to expand...
That sort of evolution does make sense. Seen a lot of positive AAM buildup lately with this nina, which is uncharacteristic. All it takes is the MJO pulse weakening and another AAM depos into the pac jet > jet ext. And we’re right back to what we’re gonna see the next few days
 
JHS said:
The 6z GFS brings the middle 80's back for many of us and not just for a day or 2 either. Close to 90 south of I-10 on a couple of days. Also 65-70 for LOWS for many of us at times.
Click to expand...
I’m still waiting for the widespread 90s that one run of the GFS was showing for around now
 
60's and 70's is really nice this time of year. Now once we get to Thanksgiving time I want it cold. But I prefer those temps with lows in the 40's at least through mid November which is likely when you'll see a switch back to east coast troughs.
 
Well dang HRRR, I'll keep y'all posted....

uh03_max.us_ma.png
 
The wind with this front is serious. Sustained at 17 mph and just had 28 mph gust. You can already feel the cooler air coming over the mountains right up the road.
 
These cells to the west are what we need to watch .. this is honestly a surprise to me I hadn’t really been paying attention. Looks like the hrrr wants to keep a couple of these cells grounded in the environment as they track east. But not widespread stuff.1666041345760.png
 
JHS said:
The 6z GFS brings the middle 80's back for many of us and not just for a day or 2 either. Close to 90 south of I-10 on a couple of days. Also 65-70 for LOWS for many of us at times.
Click to expand...
Yeah it looks like it's going to get really warm for many areas starting next weekend and it could last at least a week. Summer ain't over yet folks.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Phase 6 MJO only means one thing. Retrogression of the western US ridge back into the pacific into a GOA —> NPAC ridge. Negative PNA/SER-eastern ridge time boys by later October. Indian summer, torch. I’m back biatchesView attachment 123075View attachment 123076View attachment 123077View attachment 123078
Click to expand...
Glad to have you back! Now, I thought mjo 4-6 are cooler phases in fall but blowtorch in winter? Also, it looks like triple dip niña like you already know, but do you see any differences with this winter compared to the last two as of now?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top