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Pattern November 2022

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Raleigh has a low of 35 here tonight. Gonna bust majorly as clouds will be very late to arrive. Should radiate to freezing here by 8-9 pm . Temps dropping like a rock as sun sets. DP mid 20s isnt ideal. Be interesting to see. Nonetheless we will hit our forecasted low by 7-8 pm, if not sooner.
 
NCSNOW said:
Raleigh has a low of 35 here tonight. Gonna bust majorly as clouds will be very late to arrive. Should radiate to freezing here by 8-9 pm . Temps dropping like a rock as sun sets. DP mid 20s isnt ideal. Be interesting to see. Nonetheless we will hit our forecasted low by 7-8 pm, if not sooner.
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Pretty sure we busted last night
 
Day 12-14 seeing signs of +EAMT. Don’t know if we hold on to -NAO into early-dec but watch week 1-2 of dec for a transition to Aleutian low/+PNA. Looks like tropical forcing is heading for phase 7 in dec as well. Background dominated by +GLAAM as well. F6B6F3FD-D985-4C49-9963-D394B232B0C7.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Day 12-14 seeing signs of +EAMT. Don’t know if we hold on to -NAO into early-dec but watch week 1-2 of dec for a transition to Aleutian low/+PNA. Looks like tropical forcing is heading for phase 7 in dec as well. Background dominated by +GLAAM as well. View attachment 123854
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For ex, the extended gefs (which did a good job last winter with that +PNA event) shows the same exact process of +EAMT > extended pac jet > Aleutian low/+PNA but it’s keeps a -NAO this go around which is interesting. It’s worth noting a phase 7 dec MJO leans to a +TNH/-EPO/North Pacific block as well. Food for thought C5696FC0-AE34-48C4-90E4-0EEE767B595C.png46C5F1D7-5CFE-4F59-B2C7-86C8440EF01A.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For ex, the extended gefs (which did a good job last winter with that +PNA event) shows the same exact process of +EAMT > extended pac jet > Aleutian low/+PNA but it’s keeps a -NAO this go around which is interesting. It’s worth noting a phase 7 dec MJO leans to a +TNH/-EPO/North Pacific block as well. Food for thought View attachment 123855View attachment 123856
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So for us dummies what does this mean? Good or bad for winter weather?
 
Ollie the GFS and Euro litterally drown the turkey with heavy Rain. Webber will have to use the 90 degree rule on Balck Friday.Your right the Canadian has the temp profile, but kinda suppresses all the qpf.
 
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Loganelliott99 said:
That is not a good look for winter weather.


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You just don’t get it. It’s what follows after. That look floods Mongolia with HP/frigid air (+EAMT) which would eventually favor a western ridge a couple of weeks later. It’s a similar evolution to last year except GLAAM so far has been even more positive.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You just don’t get it. It’s what follows after. That look floods Mongolia with HP/frigid air (+EAMT) which would eventually favor a western ridge a couple of weeks later. It’s a similar evolution to last year except GLAAM so far has been even more positive.
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And what follows after actually comes at a good time for us right?
 
d3f12c46e2a7fa8d551a50fdc5882078.jpg

This little system keeps showing up on the gfs every run. Seems interesting. What’s y’all’s thoughts?


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37 and rain. It’s officially winter now. As others pointed out we are probably going to get swings every 2 weeks with this specific pattern we are in. However that also pushes for a lot of CAD when we are suppose to be in the warmer phase. Right now week 2 of December for another switch back to east coast dominated cold. That’s still a little early for my likely although is a much better climo period to score on some winter weather. Hopefully that continues into week 3 and 4 where climo is much better.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You just don’t get it. It’s what follows after. That look floods Mongolia with HP/frigid air (+EAMT) which would eventually favor a western ridge a couple of weeks later. It’s a similar evolution to last year except GLAAM so far has been even more positive.
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Yeah we should come back around to some western ridging in early-mid Dec via increasing EAsia Mtn Torque that you mentioned plus MJO running thru phases 5-6-7-8 (both working to extend the jet toward Hawaii longitude). Late Nov to mid-Dec -NAO potential as well with that persistent Scandinavian ridging lurking. Think a -NAO would have to go big initially before potential Pac pattern improvement, else it will be too warm. Climo on the early side for wintry fun as well.
 
griteater said:
Yeah we should come back around to some western ridging in early-mid Dec via increasing EAsia Mtn Torque that you mentioned plus MJO running thru phases 5-6-7-8 (both working to extend the jet toward Hawaii longitude). Late Nov to mid-Dec -NAO potential as well with that persistent Scandinavian ridging lurking. Think a -NAO would have to go big initially before potential Pac pattern improvement, else it will be too warm. Climo on the early side for wintry fun as well.
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Yep. My biggest wonder is does -NAO last long enough to coincide with western ridging/+PNA which failed to happen last January.
 
griteater said:
Yeah we should come back around to some western ridging in early-mid Dec via increasing EAsia Mtn Torque that you mentioned plus MJO running thru phases 5-6-7-8 (both working to extend the jet toward Hawaii longitude). Late Nov to mid-Dec -NAO potential as well with that persistent Scandinavian ridging lurking. Think a -NAO would have to go big initially before potential Pac pattern improvement, else it will be too warm. Climo on the early side for wintry fun as well.
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Got that low sun angle though.


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