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Pattern November 2022

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SD said:
This would be impressive imo for late NovemberView attachment 123804
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I for one would love to see that! That happens to be my birthday and I've checked that data for RDU on the day I was born and the high that day was 41 degrees and the low was 25 degrees on that day over fifty years ago. The record low for my birthday is 18 degrees and I remember that day back in the mid 1980s too because me and some friends had a chilly camping trip that weekend. If those temperatures were with some accumulating snow, I'd be golden. There has never been any measurable snow at RDU on my birthday and that's something I'd like to live to see.
 
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weather bubba said:
I for one would love to see that! That happens to be my birthday and I've checked that data for RDU on the day I was born and the high that day was 47 degrees and the low was 25 degrees on that day over fifty years ago. The record low for my birthday is 18 degrees and I remember that day back in the mid 1980s too because me and some friends had a chilly camping trip that weekend. If those temperatures were with some accumulating snow, I'd be golden. There has never been any measurable snow at RDU on my birthday and that's something I'd like to live to see.
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Best of luck to you. I hope you get your birthday wish.
 
iGRXY said:
Another big thing is going to be some front end FGEN similar to the storm from January. There likely will be more moisture and front end thump of some kind if we can maintain the S/W. At this point, cold and suppressed is good as long as we can keep the storm. I still wouldn’t expect anything more than a few hours of snow that may cover the grass before melting but that’s great for November.
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All that’s true. One thing that does look good is the cold push. Thermals really do look good, it’s just going to be a matter of getting enough moisture and high enough rates. Definitely a long shot, but at least it’s something to watch
 
Brent said:
Trending the wrong way for snow here. I guess I'll go back to hoping I see some flakes like typical November. I'm sure we'll have better chances when winter actually arrives for real View attachment 123810
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Looks like dry air further north and east really kills off the precipitation field as it moves further east. Hrrr has been consistent so far in showing the heavier snow accumulation in the west and then south of I-40.

However, I wouldn’t give up hope just yet. A last second northward trend with the precipitation field would be a game-changer and I would watch model trends later today. Whoever gets under the heaviest band tomorrow will likely get hammered.215D302B-6340-4F04-80BC-6A58F91DBAB0.png
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like dry air further north and east really kills off the precipitation field as it moves further east. Hrrr has been consistent so far in showing the heavier snow accumulation in the west and then south of I-40.

However, I wouldn’t give up hope just yet. A last second northward trend with the precipitation field would be a game-changer and I would watch model trends later today. Whoever gets under the heaviest band tomorrow will likely get hammered.View attachment 123813
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Same thing happened Friday Night. Granted that had a lot less moisture but it was good to the west then just fell apart and I never saw one flake. I dunno I mean hopefully we can get a window for snow at least but after all those runs with a nice band across the area yeah...
 
J.C. said:
Agreed. I was forecast 29F, but only hit 32F. I'm still hovering at 42.8F.
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Topped out at 44.2 today after a low of 33.1. We had my daughters outdoor birthday party today and couldn’t book an indoor space. Had to go buy a fire pit to make it bearable for me and the old people. I’ve had the flu for the past 5 days.
 
Lickwx said:
Forecasts for boone , Nashville and places west of here would be cold even for my middle of January. Here it looks like January , maybe January will bring us pleasant temps this year ? I’d like that!
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This is a below average January day for me. It's not frigid but fairly cool, even under full sun. I'm still looking for a warm up and ridging in early December. Refreshing!
 
Just in time for winter.
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EmersonGA said:
Topped out at 44.2 today after a low of 33.1. We had my daughters outdoor birthday party today and couldn’t book an indoor space. Had to go buy a fire pit to make it bearable for me and the old people. I’ve had the flu for the past 5 days.
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1668382448720.png

Pretty cold day by November standards, pretty windy too. There was a steep drop off with this airmass with temps and elevation.
This station is at 3000' on top of Burnt Mountain, very top of metro Atlanta.

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I took this shot at my lake today, some rime ice on Stover Mountain in the backround.

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