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Pattern November 2022

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0z gfs even more suppressed. Euro will always be king.


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Temps here haven’t dropped in two hours, looks like the forecasts are to low. This cold is a very slow bleed.
 
SimeonNC said:
Isn't suppression our friend this far out? :p
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I think the general rule is that suppression is our friend if’s there’s snow somewhere in the Southeast. If it’s bone dry, the wave probably isn’t coming back (except is rare cases). I still haven’t been able to let this one go.

Wintry - 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

GFS here is the FV3 https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ When is the official replacement day?
southernwx.com southernwx.com
 
Brent said:
I seem to remember last year during the big storm it was like meh so maybe
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I will say there's a TV met here who loves to hype the snow and he's said basically nothing here. On the news tonight even showed one of the no snow models ? something is off

Also my totals on the GEFS have definitely gone the wrong way
 
Brent said:
I will say there's a TV met here who loves to hype the snow and he's said basically nothing here. On the news tonight even showed one of the no snow models ? something is off

Also my totals on the GEFS have definitely gone the wrong way
Click to expand...
I thought Eiro looked good tonigh for you also??
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think the general rule is that suppression is our friend if’s there’s snow somewhere in the Southeast. If it’s bone dry, the wave probably isn’t coming back (except is rare cases). I still haven’t been able to let this one go.

Wintry - 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

GFS here is the FV3 https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ When is the official replacement day?
southernwx.com southernwx.com
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I think the key here now is that there is still a system, but of course the moisture is staying suppressed. This is one of those set ups that could see a lot of changes in the last 24-48 hours leading up. Heck the 11/2000 storm that has been referenced was only forecasted to be a small chance of drizzle in my area 48 hours out as most of the moisture was expected well south and east, instead the moisture way overperformed on to the north and west and gave 3” of snow.
 
Chazwin said:
I think the key here now is that there is still a system, but of course the moisture is staying suppressed. This is one of those set ups that could see a lot of changes in the last 24-48 hours leading up. Heck the 11/2000 storm that has been referenced was only forecasted to be a small chance of drizzle in my area 48 hours out as most of the moisture was expected well south and east, instead the moisture way overperformed on to the north and west and gave 3” of snow.
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Another big thing is going to be some front end FGEN similar to the storm from January. There likely will be more moisture and front end thump of some kind if we can maintain the S/W. At this point, cold and suppressed is good as long as we can keep the storm. I still wouldn’t expect anything more than a few hours of snow that may cover the grass before melting but that’s great for November.
 
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