• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November 2022

Status
Not open for further replies.
NickyBGuarantee said:
Again this has always been my thinking. To think the pattern change isn’t coming would be most likely wrong as there is heavy support for a dominant -NAO come mid December. This also will align with mjo propagation so it’s not so much delayed but not denied but more of this is how things were always suppose to go
Click to expand...
I’m just making the joke from last winter when the golden pattern presented itself. Which then turned into SE Ridge death
 
LukeBarrette said:
I’m just making the joke from last winter when the golden pattern presented itself. Which then turned into SE Ridge death
Click to expand...
What are you talking about with last winter? Modeling started showing a few days before Christmas that a favorable pattern for winter weather was coming and it worked out. I for one saw 3 consecutive weekends with an inch or more of snow
 
Chazwin said:
What are you talking about with last winter? Modeling started showing a few days before Christmas that a favorable pattern for winter weather was coming and it worked out. I for one saw 3 consecutive weekends with an inch or more of snow
Click to expand...
There was a second one in February
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Weeklies are predicting a -PNA with no end in sight.
View attachment 124094
Click to expand...

-PNA’s are always very stubborn and destroys winters around here. I think it will go positive eventually. Just not sure if it will be by Christmas time. I’ve been saying this for a while but people don’t want to believe it. Need the pacific on our side to have a chance for some wintry weather.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
-PNA’s are always very stubborn and destroys winters around here. I think it will go positive eventually. Just not sure if it will be by Christmas time. I’ve been saying this for a while but people don’t want to believe it. Need the pacific on our side to have a chance for some wintry weather.
Click to expand...
I made this plot earlier to determine the most important index for snow in the SE. I used Asheville (KAVL) due to the high sample size. This shows that the +PNA is by far the most important index in determining snowfall.
66AA3A64-E93E-4588-A173-519E0676915D.jpeg
 
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
Click to expand...
I couldn’t get it to load, but it looks to go through phase 7 and then into 8 before going into the COD. It’s a bit amped early on in phase 7 which aligns with the mild period we’re going into.
 
Chazwin said:
I couldn’t get it to load, but it looks to go through phase 7 and then into 8 before going into the COD. It’s a bit amped early on in phase 7 which aligns with the mild period we’re going into.
Click to expand...
What is COD?
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
Click to expand...
Wasted that cold weather in November.
 
Stevo24 said:
What is COD?
Click to expand...
It’s short for circle of death… it’s what it’s called when the MJO is at a very low amp. Typically you want the MJO to go into COD when it’s in phases 8,1, or 2 during December and January. Honestly the progression of the MJO doesn’t look bad at all. Also on other teleconnections it looks like the NAO goes fairly negative starting around 12/5-12/8 and it’s that time the PNA goes slightly negative to neutral after being strongly negative for the next 7-10 days
 
Agreed Chaz. We're not in a bad spot this far out folks. Time will tell though in a couple weeks how things will shape up as we forecast into the latter half of December.
 
Pretty clever writing from KATL

Locally, the strong southerly jet ahead of the dominant low-pressure
system should provide enough lift to form some scattered light
showers ahead of the main storm system from late afternoon through
midnight. Just after midnight, an unorganized wave (or possibly
multiple waves) of storms is expected to push into the forecast area
out of Alabama. There will be enough lift from the low- and mid-
level jet for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to form, and
while storms are expected to generally be weak with minimal upper-
level instability available, momentum transfer from a 40-50kt jet at
850hPa is a concern. The airmass in the lower kilometer will be
stable, but not by much, and therefore any water-loaded downdrafts
will have potential for strong winds gusts to occur. Even outside of
the storms, wind gusts could be up to 20-30 mph given the strong low-
level jet near the ground so be sure to secure any holiday
decorations that may be out, as inflatable Santas may take flight
tonight, which would be about a month earlier than expected.
 
day3otlk_0830.gif
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top