Patterns dominated by +TNH/-EPO in Nina years esp typically do see SER response tbh. It’s just a part of the game. Gonna get lucky time to time and get a +PNA with it, but more times then not, you get this awkward -EPO. Sort of like what we had before this week.
Warmer=better.
Well what’s the chances of that happening?
Chief Meteorologist Logan reporting for duty
You are right. There is no winning pattern. The best you can hope for is a strong +PNA combined with a -NAO with the coldest air on our side of the pole with an active southern jet. Even then I bet more often than not it doesn't produce snow. Suppression is an issue if you don't have temp problems around here. You could find any combo of teleconnections you want and find a snowstorm has occured during it. I've learned it's just luck around here to get things to line up. But the pattern I listed would lock in cold and increase the chances of getting lucky.
This has to be one of the most depressing paragraphs iv ever read.
I wasn't being serious. Just wanted to see how it felt to throw in the towel too. Nobody knows how the winter is going to turn out. All of the official sources just cite Nina and move on. Just because we know a lot of 3 letter alphabet soup doesn't mean we know what's going to happen. It's a rare 3rd year Nina. The SPV isn't strong. Already we see blocking showing up. Already, we're having a different Fall than usual. Already we're seeing very cold air building up and pushing south. I think we will see plenty of periods with potential snow and ice this winter. We'll end the winter with below normal temps and above normal snowfall, generally, for the SE. That's my real forecast.
You forgot Siberian snow cover and some mountain torque.
January’88 was the last winning pattern for NC/SC! ?
Looks like at the end of this, a big ridge is going up through Alaska, and about to pinch off the brunt of cold in Canada and sent it to the states, to my untrained eye!? So looking good for mid- DecemberThe silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
But a closer look, just has lobe after lobe of cold and troughs dumping into the Pacific NW and that’s no bueno! I’m not even that cold on this look! ??The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
You definitely want the pacific on your side for cold weather. If the pacific is bad, it can cause a host of issues where we are chasing unicorns all winter, which wouldn't be good.The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
That's not really what I see. What I see is a repeating pattern that reloads but with a stubborn SER not budging too much. Positive take away is this is early half of Dec. If/When the pattern flips (later Dec?) like grit mentioned could happen we're entering prime climo
Very well put. I’ve said now for a couple weeks that it really looks like we’re getting in a cycle that sees around 10-14 days above average followed by about 10-14 days below. It’s a cycle we’ve been in now since about the 2nd week of October… this is something that is almost more reminiscent of a neutral ENSO as opposed to a typical Niña. As for the -PNA being an absolute death nail for wintry weather, this just simply isn’t true. I know for sure that February 2004 occurred during a -PNA and I’m fairly certain that February 2014, and January 1988 did as well… someone please correct me if I’m wrong on those two
Cold air looks likes stays locked up way Canada
January 2000 repeat coming
BullCity, that’s some bull you know what from WRAL, lol. 97-98 was the Super Nino. 00-01 would have been the 3rd year Niña
Somebody's playing on both sides of the fence ?; well at least you're bound to find some grass one way or another.
Sure beats. 31 degree rain… because you be dealing with ice then lol
| Extended Forecast |   |
GROSS
Tue
Extended Forecast
Nov 29
66°F
Wed
Nov 30
67°F
Thu
Dec 1
62°F
Fri
Dec 2
67°F
Sat
Dec 3
75°F
Sun
Dec 4
76°F
Mon
Dec 5
74°F
51°F
56°F
57°F
60°F
60°F
60°F
59°F
SE 5 MPH
ESE 8 MPH
SW 6 MPH
Precip 20%
SE 5 MPH
Precip 20%
S 4 MPH
WSW 5 MPH
WSW 7 MP
I was there when it was 80 on New Years. Epic! Went swimming, had people stopping to stare at my insanity. I was in there for 30 minutes.
I agree a flex will occur with the south east ridge and I could see some big time temp gradients at times over week 2 time period. But this usually opens the door for a -NAO to develop down the line. A pretty dramatic flip in pattern could happen at that point. Thinking mid month December is a good time period for this to happen. Also we have to start watching mjo projections.. most bringing a 8-1-2 journey as we get into mid late December wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of CAD event at the start of that pattern flip
Yep, I have had way more snow in March than I’ve had in December since living here in 2006. It’s fun to start tracking in December but I’ve learned to temper my expectations until early January for the most part. I’ve had snows of 2 inches or more in December just 1 year and it happened 2 different times that December in 2010.
