• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November 2022

Status
Not open for further replies.
I’m quite concerned about this strong -EPO in the long range. I’ve seen too many instances of strong -EPOs tilting too positively and popping a -PNA. I wouldn’t get sucked into a cold extended just yet unless someone like @Webberweather53 can contradict me.
View attachment 124020

I 100% agree with you. The -PNA is going to kill anyones wishes of a cold snowy winter. -PNA is always so stubborn and it seems to be the same this year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I’m quite concerned about this strong -EPO in the long range. I’ve seen too many instances of strong -EPOs tilting too positively and popping a -PNA. I wouldn’t get sucked into a cold extended just yet unless someone like @Webberweather53 can contradict me.
View attachment 124020
Patterns dominated by +TNH/-EPO in Nina years esp typically do see SER response tbh. It’s just a part of the game. Gonna get lucky time to time and get a +PNA with it, but more times then not, you get this awkward -EPO. Sort of like what we had before this week.
 
Honestly it seems like there’s no winning pattern around here. And if there is we never get it. So the only option is to just hope for the best and look for the positives.
I’m quite concerned about this strong -EPO in the long range. I’ve seen too many instances of strong -EPOs tilting too positively and popping a -PNA. I wouldn’t get sucked into a cold extended just yet unless someone like @Webberweather53 can contradict me.
View attachment 124020
 
Honestly it seems like there’s no winning pattern around here. And if there is we never get it. So the only option is to just hope for the best and look for the positives.

We would honestly be money if the -PNA goes away. That gets us every year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Honestly it seems like there’s no winning pattern around here. And if there is we never get it. So the only option is to just hope for the best and look for the positives.
You are right. There is no winning pattern. The best you can hope for is a strong +PNA combined with a -NAO with the coldest air on our side of the pole with an active southern jet. Even then I bet more often than not it doesn't produce snow. Suppression is an issue if you don't have temp problems around here. You could find any combo of teleconnections you want and find a snowstorm has occured during it. I've learned it's just luck around here to get things to line up. But the pattern I listed would lock in cold and increase the chances of getting lucky.
 
Going to be wall to wall -PNA. Going to have to thread the needle on a reload to have a shot at a mix event or two. -EPO/+TNH/-PNA pattern preferred in weak/mod -ENSO. Combatting a -PDO and a seasonal neutral NAO/AO with pos lean, will make it hard to get cold. Likely see +3 - +7 through the cold season. +GLAAM with EMTor should allow for a week or two with MJO 7-1, but count on predom 4-6, especially with a +QBO and weak SPV. Hopefully, the VLAn won't reset before Walker cell intensification or we may be wishing for +3 - +7. I don't see how we get out of this pattern for any length of time this winter, tbh. Take any cold at all from this point forward on the models with a huge grain of salt. Don't say you weren't warned!
 
Going to be wall to wall -PNA. Going to have to thread the needle on a reload to have a shot at a mix event or two. -EPO/+TNH/-PNA pattern preferred in weak/mod -ENSO. Combatting a -PDO and a seasonal neutral NAO/AO with pos lean, will make it hard to get cold. Likely see +3 - +7 through the cold season. +GLAAM with EMTor should allow for a week or two with MJO 7-1, but count on predom 4-6, especially with a +QBO and weak SPV. Hopefully, the VLAn won't reset before Walker cell intensification or we may be wishing for +3 - +7. I don't see how we get out of this pattern for any length of time this winter, tbh. Take any cold at all from this point forward on the models with a huge grain of salt. Don't say you weren't warned!
This has to be one of the most depressing paragraphs iv ever read.
 
Going to be wall to wall -PNA. Going to have to thread the needle on a reload to have a shot at a mix event or two. -EPO/+TNH/-PNA pattern preferred in weak/mod -ENSO. Combatting a -PDO and a seasonal neutral NAO/AO with pos lean, will make it hard to get cold. Likely see +3 - +7 through the cold season. +GLAAM with EMTor should allow for a week or two with MJO 7-1, but count on predom 4-6, especially with a +QBO and weak SPV. Hopefully, the VLAn won't reset before Walker cell intensification or we may be wishing for +3 - +7. I don't see how we get out of this pattern for any length of time this winter, tbh. Take any cold at all from this point forward on the models with a huge grain of salt. Don't say you weren't warned!

I have been trying to say this. I feel like it’s a repeat of every winter around here. -PNA is stubborn and disastrous for winter weather around here


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
This has to be one of the most depressing paragraphs iv ever read.
I wasn't being serious. Just wanted to see how it felt to throw in the towel too. Nobody knows how the winter is going to turn out. All of the official sources just cite Nina and move on. Just because we know a lot of 3 letter alphabet soup doesn't mean we know what's going to happen. It's a rare 3rd year Nina. The SPV isn't strong. Already we see blocking showing up. Already, we're having a different Fall than usual. Already we're seeing very cold air building up and pushing south. I think we will see plenty of periods with potential snow and ice this winter. We'll end the winter with below normal temps and above normal snowfall, generally, for the SE. That's my real forecast.
 
Going to be wall to wall -PNA. Going to have to thread the needle on a reload to have a shot at a mix event or two. -EPO/+TNH/-PNA pattern preferred in weak/mod -ENSO. Combatting a -PDO and a seasonal neutral NAO/AO with pos lean, will make it hard to get cold. Likely see +3 - +7 through the cold season. +GLAAM with EMTor should allow for a week or two with MJO 7-1, but count on predom 4-6, especially with a +QBO and weak SPV. Hopefully, the VLAn won't reset before Walker cell intensification or we may be wishing for +3 - +7. I don't see how we get out of this pattern for any length of time this winter, tbh. Take any cold at all from this point forward on the models with a huge grain of salt. Don't say you weren't warned!
You forgot Siberian snow cover and some mountain torque.
 
The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

3J28Rd0.gif
 
The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

3J28Rd0.gif
Looks like at the end of this, a big ridge is going up through Alaska, and about to pinch off the brunt of cold in Canada and sent it to the states, to my untrained eye!? So looking good for mid- December
 
The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

3J28Rd0.gif
But a closer look, just has lobe after lobe of cold and troughs dumping into the Pacific NW and that’s no bueno! I’m not even that cold on this look! ??
 
The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies

3J28Rd0.gif
You definitely want the pacific on your side for cold weather. If the pacific is bad, it can cause a host of issues where we are chasing unicorns all winter, which wouldn't be good.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top