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Pattern November 2022

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Myfrotho704_ said:
I smell a cutoff/Miller B CAD cold rain setup. As mentioned above that SE can vortex is gonna mean lots of cool, wedged days View attachment 123779View attachment 123780
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How long the warmer pattern lasts is the million dollar question after these brief cold shots. What's interesting is the epo is literally off the charts negative on both gfs and European models?.
 
Itryatgolf said:
How long the warmer pattern lasts is the million dollar question after these brief cold shots. What's interesting is the epo is literally off the charts negative on both gfs and European models?.
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I wouldn’t call these cool/cold shots brief. We just saw in October a good 10 day or so stretch of average to below average temperatures and then the 2 week stretch of warm temperatures we’re coming out of now and we’re going into what appears to be about a 10 day or so stretch of solidly below average temps. I know that some mets have said to expect a good deal of variability with respect to the pattern with cold stretches followed by warm stretches with the potential for extremes both ways. This could be the beginning of that. One thing is for sure, as Fro said with that SE Canada vortex consistently showing up, those of us east of the mountains could be seeing a lot of CAD, even during the milder periods
 
Here's RAH:

Another fast-moving southern stream low will follow a similar track
as Tuesday`s low, with similar precip chances and reasoning. This
time however, the 12Z GFS has a colder pre-system airmass in place
and has a brief period of interesting p-types at the start of the
precip Thursday night into Friday morning. We have very low
confidence in this scenario given how far it differs from climo, so
for now, will keeps temps above freezing Thursday night and see how
models trend the next couple runs.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The 18z GFS was more suppressed, but had a greater cold push
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From what I can tell trend wise, there is a trend toward a stronger push each run up in the midwest at 500mb. The Euro had no system because that system was squashed up there this time. How it evolves over the coming days will tell if there'll be enough tilt or not to pull moisture and if so how strong and how far inland.
 
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