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Pattern November 2022

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See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.
I don't remember him posting warm maps, but he may have. I'm in the car and am not going back through the thread. But there are a lot of different models that potentially show a lot of different things, and the European ensemble image he posted was just one of them. Myfro and Logan are the ones who usually like posting the warm maps. Maybe one of them did it.
 
See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

Yes I did because there were several runs in a row where it showed ridging in the SE. That was a nice run by the EPS but it’s not a trend yet. Hopefully runs like that can continue. I still think December 20thish is when the east will turn cooler to cold


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Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.
 
Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.
We want the pacific on our side for sure. It has to be the biggest Greenland block to trump a bad or unfavorable pacific. Mjo is important more than people realize, especially in a weak to moderate niña. I like the 10th-20th time frame for a change to colder
 
Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-0414400.thumb.png.3c6624c478fc866cec3179567ada55b1.png
 
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