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Pattern November 2022

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SD said:
This would be impressive imo for late NovemberView attachment 123804
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I for one would love to see that! That happens to be my birthday and I've checked that data for RDU on the day I was born and the high that day was 41 degrees and the low was 25 degrees on that day over fifty years ago. The record low for my birthday is 18 degrees and I remember that day back in the mid 1980s too because me and some friends had a chilly camping trip that weekend. If those temperatures were with some accumulating snow, I'd be golden. There has never been any measurable snow at RDU on my birthday and that's something I'd like to live to see.
 
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weather bubba said:
I for one would love to see that! That happens to be my birthday and I've checked that data for RDU on the day I was born and the high that day was 47 degrees and the low was 25 degrees on that day over fifty years ago. The record low for my birthday is 18 degrees and I remember that day back in the mid 1980s too because me and some friends had a chilly camping trip that weekend. If those temperatures were with some accumulating snow, I'd be golden. There has never been any measurable snow at RDU on my birthday and that's something I'd like to live to see.
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Best of luck to you. I hope you get your birthday wish.
 
iGRXY said:
Another big thing is going to be some front end FGEN similar to the storm from January. There likely will be more moisture and front end thump of some kind if we can maintain the S/W. At this point, cold and suppressed is good as long as we can keep the storm. I still wouldn’t expect anything more than a few hours of snow that may cover the grass before melting but that’s great for November.
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All that’s true. One thing that does look good is the cold push. Thermals really do look good, it’s just going to be a matter of getting enough moisture and high enough rates. Definitely a long shot, but at least it’s something to watch
 
Brent said:
Trending the wrong way for snow here. I guess I'll go back to hoping I see some flakes like typical November. I'm sure we'll have better chances when winter actually arrives for real View attachment 123810
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Looks like dry air further north and east really kills off the precipitation field as it moves further east. Hrrr has been consistent so far in showing the heavier snow accumulation in the west and then south of I-40.

However, I wouldn’t give up hope just yet. A last second northward trend with the precipitation field would be a game-changer and I would watch model trends later today. Whoever gets under the heaviest band tomorrow will likely get hammered.215D302B-6340-4F04-80BC-6A58F91DBAB0.png
 
BufordWX said:
Looks like dry air further north and east really kills off the precipitation field as it moves further east. Hrrr has been consistent so far in showing the heavier snow accumulation in the west and then south of I-40.

However, I wouldn’t give up hope just yet. A last second northward trend with the precipitation field would be a game-changer and I would watch model trends later today. Whoever gets under the heaviest band tomorrow will likely get hammered.View attachment 123813
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Same thing happened Friday Night. Granted that had a lot less moisture but it was good to the west then just fell apart and I never saw one flake. I dunno I mean hopefully we can get a window for snow at least but after all those runs with a nice band across the area yeah...
 
J.C. said:
Agreed. I was forecast 29F, but only hit 32F. I'm still hovering at 42.8F.
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Topped out at 44.2 today after a low of 33.1. We had my daughters outdoor birthday party today and couldn’t book an indoor space. Had to go buy a fire pit to make it bearable for me and the old people. I’ve had the flu for the past 5 days.
 
Lickwx said:
Forecasts for boone , Nashville and places west of here would be cold even for my middle of January. Here it looks like January , maybe January will bring us pleasant temps this year ? I’d like that!
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This is a below average January day for me. It's not frigid but fairly cool, even under full sun. I'm still looking for a warm up and ridging in early December. Refreshing!
 
Just in time for winter.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
EmersonGA said:
Topped out at 44.2 today after a low of 33.1. We had my daughters outdoor birthday party today and couldn’t book an indoor space. Had to go buy a fire pit to make it bearable for me and the old people. I’ve had the flu for the past 5 days.
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1668382448720.png

Pretty cold day by November standards, pretty windy too. There was a steep drop off with this airmass with temps and elevation.
This station is at 3000' on top of Burnt Mountain, very top of metro Atlanta.

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I took this shot at my lake today, some rime ice on Stover Mountain in the backround.

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I really don’t see warm temps anytime soon, maybe a few warm days, week 3-4 imo might trend colder to AVG-Slightly BN. Even if we have a -PNA/-NAO, the Carolina’s is gonna deal with lot of wedging. Ridge position up around greenland is a kelvin benjamin becoming a tight end from a Popeyes biscuit away from being undercut/breaked by a cutoff and causing a decent duration -NAO around day 7-14. Only issue is, the MJO is entering a warmer phase, but looks to head to phase 7 in early December
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I really don’t see warm temps anytime soon, maybe a few warm days, week 3-4 imo might trend colder to AVG-Slightly BN. Even if we have a -PNA/-NAO, the Carolina’s is gonna deal with lot of wedging. Ridge position up around greenland is a kelvin benjamin becoming a tight end from a Popeyes biscuit away from being undercut/breaked by a cutoff and causing a decent duration -NAO around day 7-14. Only issue is, the MJO is entering a warmer phase, but looks to head to phase 7 in early December
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Is it just me or does it seem like we’re following a pattern that you would see more so in neutral ENSO year? It’s interesting to follow because I’ve always read that the MJO has much less impact on North America when the ENSO is in a neutral phase
 
00z HRRR would be something. Almost no snow in OKC while places to the south get hammered. Unless this moves north overnight, I would be tempted to go south tomorrow. Might not be able to due to my schedule though.

Looking like a band of heavy wet snowfall with what could be 1-2” an hour rates. Couple that with some fall colors still on the trees it would be a sight to see!D6BA278A-A528-4BE3-BB96-0968EAB062B2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Very rare to see a footprint like that View attachment 123821
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That actually looks a lot like a typical Niña cold footprint, like a lot of winter outlooks we’re showing in the fall! Just off of memory, with regards to temps using mostly climo, I would assume
 
BufordWX said:
00z HRRR would be something. Almost no snow in OKC while places to the south get hammered. Unless this moves north overnight, I would be tempted to go south tomorrow. Might not be able to due to my schedule though.

Looking like a band of heavy wet snowfall with what could be 1-2” an hour rates. Couple that with some fall colors still on the trees it would be a sight to see!View attachment 123823
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I thought I was done going south to chase when I moved to Tulsa but if that verifies... ? I'm definitely gonna be watching trends
 
ForsythSnow said:
I wonder where the actual temp bottom is here tonight. We've already blown past the 31 from the NWS tonight (sitting at 29.1) and still falling.
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You know how it is though…if you’re in a low lying spot like @EmersonGA, the bottom can fall out. I’m already at 31.1F, but I would anticipate my regular rise that happens around midnight, then the settling back off right around 30-31F.
 
J.C. said:
You know how it is though…if you’re in a low lying spot like @EmersonGA, the bottom can fall out. I’m already at 31.1F, but I would anticipate my regular rise that happens around midnight, then the settling back off right around 30-31F.
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25.3 here. The breeze never completely quit.
 
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