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Pattern November 2022

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2 lps, vorts next week. Tues into Wed and another Fri. Euro has been putting eggs in 2cnd one,GFS putting its eggs in the first one. Better shot to get column cold enough on 2cnd one I beleive. 7 to 10 day timeframe. Will get sorted out over weekend,once Nicole exits stage right imo.
 
If you think we’re going to see snow next week… you’re probably wrong. Times you shouldn’t get excited about snow is mid November .. it’s always possible but you should never expect anything but an ice cold rain when we are way out of our climo
I mean mid November is only like a couple weeks from when climo really ramps up. First week of December has produced some big winter events. Does 15 days really make a big difference ?
 
I mean mid November is only like a couple weeks from when climo really ramps up. First week of December has produced some big winter events. Does 15 days really make a big difference ?
Maybe not so much in TN, but south of there, yes, it does. I start paying attention after the first week in December.
 
Maybe not so much in TN, but south of there, yes, it does. I start paying attention after the first week in December.
Yes obviously if you live in the mountains you’re prepared for anything as early as November 1st hell even October .. for us low elevation folks .. we wait until at leastttt early December before we can think about dipping our toes in the snow
 
Really starting to pay attention to the tornado threat coming up with Nicole .. could see more in the way of this threat as we get closer to go time due to the location of where the low has been trending
 
I believe I discussed this with you prior, but there does seem to be a persistent tendency of low height anomalies in the SW North American region — from the Pacific off California, into Baja/NW Mexico and the SW US. I think that plays a role in interfering in the winter cold that would otherwise strike the Atlantic South.

It's not a big deal if the troughs remain in the Baja/nearby Pacific — the flow is effectively zonal from there, so things stay quite mild

But those troughs have a way of "hanging around" in Arizona, New Mexico, and other SW US regions — either as "positive tilt" artifacts or complete bowling balls. These western troughs "bleeding east" set up the situation wherein cold focuses more on Texas, Louisiana, and western Southern states instead of spreading eastward into the Atlantic South states.

As far as mountains, if the Apps are continuously ~5000+ in height (i.e. as opposed to just isolated peaks reaching that point), then that will indeed stop anything up to ~850mb emanating from the west. But, in situations with warm sectors encompassing Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, etc that is west of those ranges, the trough orientation definitely is important.
Yeah I agree with this. We've seen our fair share of periods of -PNA or neutral PNA and -EPO, which does tend to blunt the eastward progression of troughing. Tropical forcing has not been incredibly favorable for large portions of the cold season. That said, it's not a wise idea reduce the winter pattern to one or two variables. I hope this winter allows for periods of genuine cold making it into the SE and sticking around for a while. I suspect blocking up north will play a significant role here.
 
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