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Pattern November 2022

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There it is. South of 85 screw job.View attachment 123626
This is so far out it could easily end up 60 degrees for this day. But, it is amazing all the event that setup along and northwest of a line from Charlotte to Raleigh. As a kid living in Goldsboro, I was always jealous of my extended family in Durham when they got snow/ice and I got rain. But I also remember a few big storms where we did better. Haven't seen those types of storms in a while.
 
This is so far out it could easily end up 60 degrees for this day. But, it is amazing all the event that setup along and northwest of a line from Charlotte to Raleigh. As a kid living in Goldsboro, I was always jealous of my extended family in Durham when they got snow/ice and I got rain. But I also remember a few big storms where we did better. Haven't seen those types of storms in a while.
I say this all the time but it’s amazing even here the difference between the airport-ish area of Durham County and here.
 
It was 78 this afternoon. Boy is that a distant memory... There are 3 chances for snowflakes in the next week ?and im not sure what month we'll see 78 againScreenshot_20221110-222327.png

Monday looks a little better again on the GFS btw. The NWS is not impressed thinking probably just a flizzard more than anything but they didn't rule out a surprise gfs_asnow_scus_21.png
 
It was 78 this afternoon. Boy is that a distant memory... There are 3 chances for snowflakes in the next week ?and im not sure what month we'll see 78 againView attachment 123649

Monday looks a little better again on the GFS btw. The NWS is not impressed thinking probably just a flizzard more than anything but they didn't rule out a surprise View attachment 123650
I think Monday has a high boom or bust potential. Looks to me like it will come down to how fast the column cools under the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fine line between a cold rain and a few inches of snow a change of 1-3 degrees will make a massive difference.

00z models as a whole have looked better so far. 00z CMC had its best looking run yet as well, so the Euro will be interesting to see.
 
I think Monday has a high boom or bust potential. Looks to me like it will come down to how fast the column cools under the heaviest precipitation. Going to be a fine line between a cold rain and a few inches of snow a change of 1-3 degrees will make a massive difference.

00z models as a whole have looked better so far. 00z CMC had its best looking run yet as well, so the Euro will be interesting to see.

Oh yeah I fully expect if it does really snow it's gonna be really coming down. It's not gonna be some flurry you have to squint to see ?

The issue seems to be does the ULL start to weaken on approach. That would be harder to snow basically
 
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