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Pattern November 2022

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FallsLake said:
6z GFS for this coming Tuesday morning. I would take this with a grain of salt, but as we discussed, maybe a sleet shower to start our (SE folks) winter tracking...
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My point and click NWS forecast has a 30 percent chance of snow.at night followed by a 50 percent chance of rain and snow during the day.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
My point and click NWS forecast has a 30 percent chance of snow.at night followed by a 50 percent chance of rain and snow during the day.
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Yep, something for us to track. Even if (at best) it ends up being some flurries/sleet mix. **tracking winter events, to me, is 90% of the fun.
 
FallsLake said:
And, it looks like the rain/snow mention has been added for all the Blacksburg forecast zone. .....of course RAH is showing just rain, even for their NW areas.

Edit: So areas north and west of Charlotte are showing rain/snow mix. Excluding RAH forecast counties.
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When they get a ground report, they'll change forecast and put it in there. Then boast of their accuracy. Everyone over this way(west of Triangle) deals with this continously. Wash rinse repeat.
 
FallsLake said:
And, it looks like the rain/snow mention has been added for all the Blacksburg forecast zone. .....of course RAH is showing just rain, even for their NW areas.

Edit: So areas north and west of Charlotte are showing rain/snow mix. Excluding RAH forecast counties.
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This system is losing support. The moisture is evaporating.... again. Need higher returns to saturate the column, but good luck.

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BullCityWx said:
Through ten days, Charlotte is almost exactly 7º warmer than the warmest november of all time.
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The jet stream is very wavy. Bringing the warmth when you're under the ridge. Alberta is recording all-time record lows and by huge margins. The troughs are going to be brutal.
 
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If this was even just the middle of December we would be sounding the alarms left and right with this look. Tons of little pulses with the southern jet and perfect Great lakes ridging and 50/50 low forming a deep CAD. This is a picture perfect look for a winter storm if only it was about a month later.
 
iGRXY said:
1668481200-fVV2hSCeVPg.png
1668492000-OmnmqgqR0Ig.png

If this was even just the middle of December we would be sounding the alarms left and right with this look. Tons of little pulses with the southern jet and perfect Great lakes ridging and 50/50 low forming a deep CAD. This is a picture perfect look for a winter storm if only it was about a month later.
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Except for the fact that the trough is no longer neg and has trended more and more pos. The thread would be dying a slow death.

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smast16 said:
Except for the fact that the trough is no longer neg and has trended more and more pos. The thread would be dying a slow death.

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Not trying to be that guy but + tilt isn't a bad thing if you are trying to run weak moist advection over top a marginal profile
 
SD said:
Not trying to be that guy but + tilt isn't a bad thing if you are trying to run weak moist advection over top a marginal profile
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Agreed. Negative tilt troughs typically only help us east of the mountains in snow set ups… even then the tilt has got to be timed just right… if it is then it can help expand precip from coastal lows further west, but if it’s too early the low cuts inland. Honestly the pattern showing on the models next week looks like one that could make for a good southern slider or two if it were about 3 weeks later
 
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