I remember late December was Hella warm with tornadoes.Not really, that sort of pattern eventually favors a cold shot/high pressure to build into Mongolia/China and +EAMT which would act to eventually extend the pacific jet
Myfro, I do hope we have episodes of a -epo this winter and -nao at times. Definitely after December it was pretty cold for most of us. I feel we will have some influence of an east based niña as well imo. Coldest anomalies are just west of Peru, so farStep 1 to extend the pacific jet, +EAMTView attachment 123850View attachment 123851
Pretty sure we busted last nightRaleigh has a low of 35 here tonight. Gonna bust majorly as clouds will be very late to arrive. Should radiate to freezing here by 8-9 pm . Temps dropping like a rock as sun sets. DP mid 20s isnt ideal. Be interesting to see. Nonetheless we will hit our forecasted low by 7-8 pm, if not sooner.
For ex, the extended gefs (which did a good job last winter with that +PNA event) shows the same exact process of +EAMT > extended pac jet > Aleutian low/+PNA but it’s keeps a -NAO this go around which is interesting. It’s worth noting a phase 7 dec MJO leans to a +TNH/-EPO/North Pacific block as well. Food for thoughtDay 12-14 seeing signs of +EAMT. Don’t know if we hold on to -NAO into early-dec but watch week 1-2 of dec for a transition to Aleutian low/+PNA. Looks like tropical forcing is heading for phase 7 in dec as well. Background dominated by +GLAAM as well. View attachment 123854
Snowing like crazy here big flakes
Video?
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So for us dummies what does this mean? Good or bad for winter weather?For ex, the extended gefs (which did a good job last winter with that +PNA event) shows the same exact process of +EAMT > extended pac jet > Aleutian low/+PNA but it’s keeps a -NAO this go around which is interesting. It’s worth noting a phase 7 dec MJO leans to a +TNH/-EPO/North Pacific block as well. Food for thought View attachment 123855View attachment 123856
Good.So for us dummies what does this mean? Good or bad for winter weather?
GoodSo for us dummies what does this mean? Good or bad for winter weather?