GREAT GOOGLY MOOGLY THE SOUTH EAST RIDGE IS HEATING UP ...
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Pattern Nippy November
- Thread starter jackendrickwx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pacific pattern still looks like garbage but at least we've got something to go our way ~ day 8 on the EPS. The eastern US ridge is trending towards a -NAO
feels weird seeing the SER back down lol, but this pattern ain’t the best for a winter storm due to that -PNA, but there is that -NAO, starting to wonder if this is trending towards that cutoff -NAO look, do you perhaps know/got any past winter storms with a -NAO/-PNAish pattern that occurred
Alright cats and kittens, y'all ready to get this party started? Buckle up!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The chips are basically being stacked against us & a cold/snowy pattern from now until at least late December, if we emerge from this period seasonable, I'd consider that a major victory, if we end up seeing a storm somehow out of this, then consider that a major bonus. Like HM/Masiello, I'm definitely starting to think we may crank something out near the tail end of Dec or early January when the MJO enters the West-central Pacific & western hemisphere again. There's something about winter storms in the Carolinas and phase 7 MJO during January...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's certainly somewhat rare but there are a lot more examples of this than you'd think.
Here are few select storms that I've mapped which featured a significant -NAO/-PNA:
You'll probably recognize a few of these.
Jon
Member
Backed off from cold, to heat, back to cold. Lol. Models have been insanely volatile for that period, it’s been fun to watch. Hard to see it backing from trending toward a huge -NAO though. The cold runs are here to stay this time.
Yeah it’s the last run of the GEFS and no I don’t take it verbatim, but it sure is nice seeing our friend the -EPO wanting to make a comeback after the first week of Dec. That paired with a -NAO....
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I can take this question a step further and ask have their been any major storms that occurred w/ a +AO/-PNA/+WPO/+EPO?
The answer is... yes.
Makes sense that if one were to occur it would be at the very end of the season when the wavelengths are really short & we still have enough cold air being thrown around.
Many of our teleconnections (esp the PNA) start to break down outside the heart of winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Backed off from cold, to heat, back to cold. Lol. Models have been insanely volatile for that period, it’s been fun to watch. Hard to see it backing from trending toward a huge -NAO though. The cold runs are here to stay this time.
Yeah it’s the last run of the GEFS and no I don’t take it verbatim, but it sure is nice seeing our friend the -EPO wanting to make a comeback after the first week of Dec. That paired with a -NAO....
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I still think this -NAO might back off at some point in early Dec following this big surge in IO convection, but the continued -NAMT is going to keep reinforcing it.
It's weird to be even talking about a real -NAO in winter, much less if/when it may or may not back off.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Especially when subseasonal tropical forcing isn't going to be favorable for it in early Dec... Big yikes when it comes back to the Pacific/W Hem in late Dec/early Jan
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Backed off from cold, to heat, back to cold. Lol. Models have been insanely volatile for that period, it’s been fun to watch. Hard to see it backing from trending toward a huge -NAO though. The cold runs are here to stay this time.
Yeah it’s the last run of the GEFS and no I don’t take it verbatim, but it sure is nice seeing our friend the -EPO wanting to make a comeback after the first week of Dec. That paired with a -NAO....
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I think the GEFS overzealous w/ W hem convection in the longer-term which is probably contributing to a jet extension and then subsequent ACWB over AK at day 15. A -EPO is coming down the pipe especially once the subseasonal tropical forcing starts shifting out of the Indian Ocean, but it's probably not as soon as the GEFS suggests.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm not spiking the football yet though. We've seen the -NAO in November and it's modeled still for December, but we ain't there yet. Still 10 days away from December 1 and actual winter. It could still fizzle in flames before then. But I love the fact that the heat and ridge is not yet locked in on the modeling, and may be backing off. That itself is a win in my book.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If this west-based -NAO hangs tough through this tumultuous, unfavorable period, then many of us might get our wish around week 3 ish...
Definitely makes you wonder how big of a difference it may cause, especially once other favorable things shift our direction in the next several weeks, definitely different vs last winter, past few winters most of our help has mostly been a -EPO so we tend to get lots of miller b transfers with 1030-1040 high pressures sliding in from Canada in response and less of those classic miller A setups, can’t help but be a tad bit optimistic since the NAO favors those more classic setups
Jon
Member
Yeah I agree. Definitely don’t buy it at this point, I need the EPS to trend away from the AK ridge before I remotely believe the GEFS’s evolution...I just get giddy sometimes whenever I see a run like that in a winter month.
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And then we’ve had the issues of having actual miller A setups, but overly suppressive PV lobes around the GLs/southern Canada, which turns them into oblivion or they just can’t trend NW enough due to suppression, man that Setup was disappointing at the end of last February
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The -NAO is already here & guidance has been growing only more impressive w/ it closer to verification, I see no reason to believe it won't persist thru at least the end of Nov into the start of Dec.
Big dog -NAO regimes like this one develop in-situ and then usually take several weeks to run their course and once they develop, they're continuously being reinforced by cyclonic wave breakers being shoved underneath the pre-existing block and they can be difficult to get rid of.
In addition to very quiescent solar activity favoring lower ozone production & a cooler tropical stratosphere (which thus decreases the meridional temperature gradient in the stratosphere, encourages a stronger mean meridional circulation & potentially a more disturbed polar vortex) this year's predisposition towards enhanced tropical convection near & west of the International Dateline in the equatorial Pacific is favorable to -NAO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As HM/Masiello said yesterday, this also to me feels like a throwback to the 1960s at the onset of winter except with a warmer base state.
It's been so long since we had a classic miller a storm. THIS IS THE YEAR FOR THE CAROLINAS.
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Avalanche
Member
It's been so long since we had a classic miller a storm. Yes, it seems that way. Is it even still possible?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Only for the W half. The E half rarely benefits from Miller As that strengthen quickly from what I can tell. I'm all for Miller As of most varieties because that's what gives us here in N GA a lot.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Avalanche
Member
31 years, if memory serves! Let us never forget: Jan 88!?
The only thing I remember about that from a met standpoint is seeing the snowline far south and it never seemed to inch northward. Started off as snow and stayed that way the entire duration. Don't know if the LP moved up the coastline, but large precip shield to the south that expanded northward (overrunning). All I can recall. Great storm.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It was in the teens for the duration in Gastonia NC, but still ended as about 1/4” of ZR crust , on top of 14-16” of powder, as low bombed off the coasts
About time someone else noticed this, and someone from Georgia no doubt. Yeah, the warm nose usually ruins Miller A storms for SD, Rain Cold, and others that are in my area. Most of the time we end up with a frozen mess of IP and ZR. Of course, go NW about 15 to 20 miles and those folks are saying what warm nose. It's really hard to get a decent snowfall in my area.
Edit: The huge exception for this was the January 2000 Carolina Crusher. Man, I would love to see another one of those!
The only thing about a miller a storm is there tends to be a sharp cutoff from snow to rain. For us in the triangle we would need a low well off the coast. We've been burned many times with these types of storms. A Miller b can be much more forgiving with a strong CAD creating a bigger transition zone. So personally, I would love to see a year with more miller b setups.
Avalanche
Member
"Of course, go NW about 15 to 20 miles and those folks are saying what warm nose." That's me on the NW side of Chatham, close to Alamance. We are affected by them, but a simple drive to Alamance/Guilford puts me in pure snow.
We can do very well with Miller As, if we get a favorable track. No reason we can't. Just, we haven't had a lot of them lately, and the ones that we've had have occurred in some generally warm winters. We need an active STJ and along with a generally cold background. We actually may have both this year. I'm tired of an inch of snow, followed by freezing rain, while 5 miles to my northwest gets 6"+. I think this is going to be the year, finally, that is going to feature some bonafide winter weather, more than once or twice, over a large area of the SE.
pcbjr
Member
Just one, with some cold air in place all the way up to 540, out of the Gulf around Tampa and crossing south of JAX would make a decade ... for someone ...
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SnowNiner
Member
6z GFS brings some frigid air for conference championship weekend ill be at the ACC Champ game hope it's not in the teens.
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NoSnowATL
Member
I will take the blue line for $1000000 Alex.
It won't do much for us unless you move it southeast by a good margin. I don't think I have seen anyone outline storm tracks like that so seems suspect to me.
NoSnowATL
Member
True, the tracks won’t work but I like the idea of the GOM being active this year.
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Wow. Cool. Guess no one shot me the memo that we were going into super goober weenie hut Jr mode today. Keep that same energy 
️ even when the modeled -NAO crashes and burns ?
️ even when the modeled -NAO crashes and burns ?
The pattern that will setup late this month (possibly into early December) won't be favorable for snow storms. A vorticy (upper level high) down in the Gulf will mean warmer temperatures across the east and storm systems will cut. Or, if this upper level high pushes further east as time goes on, an ice storm could set up at somepoint in December when another cold blast pushes south and east.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Wise words here... temper your expectations, y'all.