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Pattern Nippy November

accu35 said:
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I will take e20 and call it a winter bullseye right over t town
 
WxWatch said:
I don't think it will happen by Wednesday, if any storm system, it would occur sometime late next week or next weekend. If things turn out differently, that S/W could still turn out to be a winter storm. Another thing to watch for is that PV anomaly, the cold is actually going to "re-generate" and the cold could possibly move further south and east in time as the S/W moves in the southeast region. View attachment 25731
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SE Canada vortex may act as a “50/50 low” stronger it is and more south, the more CAA/high pressure but also more suppression
 
Does anyone have 0z cmc? TT stuck on 24 for the past hr or so
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SE Canada vortex may act as a “50/50 low” stronger it is and more south, the more CAA/high pressure but also more suppression
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True, definitely don't want more suppression. The 0z CMC does have that PV slightly further south than 0z GFS. Southern edge of PV is reaching the Great Lakes down into the far Northeast US. gem_z500a_namer_23.png
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
The moisture is getting juicier and expanding if only we can get the cold air to already be in place before the moisture comes and also if the system will be a slow mover instead of a fast mover
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The cold isn't already going to be in place in the southeast region, but the cold does catch up to the back edge of the moisture west of the mountains of the southeast region. By the time the cold air makes it over the mountains, most of the moisture will be gone. The moisture will be high tailing it behind the front.
 
WxWatch said:
The cold isn't already going to be in place in the southeast region, but the cold does catch up to the back edge of the moisture west of the mountains of the southeast region. By the time the cold air makes it over the mountains, most of the moisture will be gone. The moisture will be high tailing it behind the front.
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Basically the usual cold chasing moisture
 
32 with freezing fog this morning. We’ve had a ton of fog the past couple of weeks around here.
 
Still a low end chance that a few lucky people across central nc may briefly see a few flakes on Tuesday afternoon. I'm not entirely solid on the idea but with the sfc front clearing quickly, caa moving in and maybe a batch or 2 of precip on the cold side of the front it's not impossible.

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Tarheel1 said:
Reload!
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Reloading and dumping all of the cold air into Eurasia & holding it there until March! Great plan!

I'll be thrilled if we end up close to average in this pattern, it's going to be a while before we turn legitimately cold again w/o the -EPO. We basically need to wait on the -NAO to have nearly run its course w/ the Scandinavian ridge having retrograded all the way towards the Baffin Bay before getting real excited & that's no less than 2.5-3 weeks off from now.
 
Downeastnc said:
That pretty much goes for anytime during the winter.....
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February 1989 is arguably the most classic example of that in your neck of the woods. Temps approached the upper 70s-near 80F on multiple occasions right before big winter storms.

So much for warm ground temps and a higher sun angle...

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CADEffect said:
I find it odd that Bermuda will be cooler the the States. I don’t think GEFS is picking up on a strong -NAO and is causing temps to torch.


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The GEFS is picking up on the NAO more than the EPS actually. It's pretty normal for us to be mild or torch during the onset phase of the NAO when the Scandinavian ridge has yet to begin retrograding towards Greenland.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS is picking up on the NAO more than the EPS actually. It's pretty normal for us to be mild or torch during the onset phase of the NAO when the Scandinavian ridge has yet to begin retrograding towards Greenland.
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As long as I'm not running AC at Christmas and things are starting to cool by then I'll take it
 
ATLwxfan said:
While you may get some desperation excitement from cold chasing moisture in February, it’s a waste of time right now IMO.


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It may not happen at all, but I'm having fun regardless, LOL!!
 
Don’t get tricked haha, most of that “snow” the gfs is showing is just trickery, if you look at its simulated radar and soundings in that “snow” band, DGZs are completely dry, suggesting no snow development and CAA along with drying aloft has shut off precip, GFS did that with the anafrontal failure last winter which was tricky 35307E86-4772-4413-867C-50AF182BD981.jpeg35494023-0317-4CC9-B576-E0B8A384C0EF.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t get tricked haha, most of that “snow” the gfs is showing is just trickery, if you look at its simulated radar and soundings in that “snow” band, DGZs are completely dry, suggesting no snow development and CAA along with drying aloft has shut off precip, GFS did that with the anafrontal failure last winter which was tricky View attachment 25753View attachment 25754
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Not taking in effect on ground temps either ...yeah I said it...cause it’s the first frozen precip chance coming out of fall... it will play factor ...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Don’t get tricked haha, most of that “snow” the gfs is showing is just trickery, if you look at its simulated radar and soundings in that “snow” band, DGZs are completely dry, suggesting no snow development and CAA along with drying aloft has shut off precip, GFS did that with the anafrontal failure last winter which was tricky View attachment 25753View attachment 25754
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I'll be happy just to get some sleet pellets out of it, lol. Which is possible assuming the short range models and gefs has been showing. Small chance but its there
 
tennessee storm said:
Not taking in effect on ground temps either ...yeah I said it...cause it’s the first frozen precip chance coming out of fall... it will play factor ...
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It will probably be nothing more than some sleet pellets or freezing drizzle.
 
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