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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

It's always fun to watch he models try to resolve gulf convection and the resultant storm coverage to the north. You can see the impact of a gulf coast mcs when you look at the 3k vs the 12k 18z nams with the 12k having better coverage farther north. As a whole this is the classic cape chasing MCS setup on Friday into Saturday. Not entirely sure what it anything could get going Saturday afternoon/ evening on the back of the mcs. There will be a lot of subsidence and poor thermos there that may be able to be offset by better kinematics.

The system next week has the makings of a Arklatex, miss, west TN, Missouri boot heel look with the best forcing racing north with a decaying mcs moving east across the region. There might be a secondary threat across parts of AL/GA as more energy rounds the base of the trough but I'm not sold
 
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SD said:
It's always fun to watch he models try to resolve gulf convection and the resultant storm coverage to the north. You can see the impact of a gulf coast mcs when you look at the 3k vs the 12k 18z nams with the 12k having better coverage farther north. As a whole this is the classic cape chasing MCS setup on Friday into Saturday. Not entirely sure what it anything could get going Saturday afternoon/ evening on the back of the mcs. There will be a lot of subsidence and poor thermos there that may be about to be offset by better kinematics.

The system next week has the makings of a Arklatex, miss, west TN, Missouri boot heel look with the best forcing racing north with a decaying mcs moving east across the region. There might be a secondary threat across parts of AL/GA as more energy rounds the base of the trough but I'm not sold
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Thought it'd be interesting to add but on SPC discussion they mentioned adding risk area for portions of the south on Saturdays threat. Just roll the dice and see what we get I guess ?
 
I think itll be a decent bowing segment attached to a squall line tommorow morning/ afternoon in south Mississippi. Models have walked back on Gulf convection some albeit hrrr seems to bumped it more some in the 00z.. Don't think there's many board members in south Mississippi if any though. The threat will either be elevated convection of barely surface based lol with pretty meager instability. Just driven by kinematics it seems
 
Some screenshots of the hi res suites. Trust the WRF most right now. But once the short range HRRR really gets into shooting distance I'll lean on it more. wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_29.pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_30.pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_25.pngScreenshot_20221229-204255-922.pngScreenshot_20221229-204220-819.pngScreenshot_20221229-205046-574.png
 

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accu35 said:
Any chance south Alabama could get rocked?
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Maybe a couple severe storms tommorow afternoon. Not really sure with the Tuesday Wednesday threat. I'd imagine dynamics are going to be pretty far north. A couple days closer and we will probably know something
 
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