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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

NickyBGuarantee said:
If it’s messy that’s an automatic red flag for not having a tornado outbreak
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I guess, but most of the souths tornado days are messy. Mixed in with squall lines and line segments. With different storm modes everywhere lol. We don't have the typical plains tornado environment.
 
Zander98al said:
I guess, but most of the souths tornado days are messy. Mixed in with squall lines and line segments. With different storm modes everywhere lol. We don't have the typical plains tornado environment.
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Wonder if this is a case like several weeks ago where most of the crapvection developed further south and limited northward extent of the Severe.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Wonder if this is a case like several weeks ago where most of the crapvection developed further south and limited northward extent of the Severe.
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Not sure, not close enough to say I don't think so though
 
NWMSGuy said:
Do those EURO Flash Rate maps lighting up for this event?
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I don't know lol, I think thats a paid feature on the model websites I go with the free stuff. When it gets in the hi res models I think the free ones show it if I'm not mistaken.
 
The discrepancy between the current 18z nam and it's counterparts of the 3km 18z nam and FV3 is odd. Really opens the door for a more serious threat for Saturday afternoon. With the storms and rain clearing out by early Saturday morning.
 
Zander98al said:
I don't know lol, I think thats a paid feature on the model websites I go with the free stuff. When it gets in the hi res models I think the free ones show it if I'm not mistaken.
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Oh sorry, I guess I thought you may have had Weatherbell. Guess I may need to subscribe again lol.
 
Saturday afternoon is shaping up to be a halfway decent event. Timing and evolution looks favorable now. It'll be in complete range of 3km nam by the 06z run.
 
SPC mentions they where going to put a 30% risk area but held off at the moment on today's update for monday
 
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