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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

No point at looking at Saturdays event until hi res comes in looking at you WRF models ?. Should be a few models runs lol
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
The text shows a lot of uncertainty still remains lots of questions about northward progression of the warm front and thus instability. High ceiling, low floor. One to watch as we get closer
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I actually think warm front progression will be a non issue, storm mode will be the question and magnitude. Likely looking at getting into the Ohio valley down to portions of the southeast.
 
Looking at the 12Z run of the GFS, SBCAPE is starting to increase for portions of southern LA at 21Z Monday compared to the 06z run. Will be interesting to see if this increase continues to advance north as we get closer to the event.
 
No bueno. Has spring come early?! Yeah this will be a pretty big warm sector. No issue with moisture. That risk area will expand. And to be quite frank a small 30% seems pretty plausible in the update tommorow. I gotta say this is looking pretty significant ?. Storm mode will be the question of course. Screenshot_20221228-114155.png
 
Another observation lapse rates are very favorable, did multiple soundings through the Tennessee valley and such area and each level was about 7 or above.
 
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Storm mode is going to be greatly dependent on the track of the surface low. 12z GFS has it tracking from Colorado to Nebraska then on through South Dakota and ultimately into Minnesota. This would suggest a linear storm mode with less than impressive dynamics as the system progresses. Sometimes these things can get a second low to pop further south. That would change things and there is still time to see if models pickup on something like that. No evidence of that so far. Thermodynamics appear to definitely be there
 
Good grief just checked the Saturday threat and it's flipped back to its yesterday thinking lol. going to post something on it in just a minute
 
12z nam really pushes parameters for a second wave Saturday afternoon. Hi res models will need to be used for that. If a enough lift can get in there you'll have some severe storms then, doesn't look like much of a tornado threat but some hail and damaging wind maybe. Unless some of your hi res points otherwise. ?
 
12z euro looks like a pretty bad tornado outbreak for a majority of the southeast, albeit a messy one lol
 
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