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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
 
Zander98al said:
Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
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Been busy myself today. Haven't had chance to really check things. This Wednesday/Thursday thing is intriguing.
 
Zander98al said:
Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
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Been waiting for your updates haha . And hoping Atlanta is in the mix for at least one of them!
 
shortstopsergio said:
I’m more educated on the weather than the average person but I never learned how to read these. Anyone willing to educate?
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Some of your more important factors tend to be LCL, 3CAPE, SBCAPE, 3KM/1KM HELICITY, LAPSE RATES. and your hodo graph which is on the top right. You'd want something that looks like a sickle almost; for some robust storms. Lot of other factors but those are some of the things I look at when glancing through for possibility of tornado potential.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SWly flow at 500mb. Good look for a QLCS right there especially with those sort of wind parameters
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Generally it's hard pressed to find a event in the south that doesn't congeal into a line of sorts. Its almost a a ticking time clock of opportunity where it's semi isolated lol. But your right, would want it more westerly hardly ever get that in Alabama or Mississippi. Gotta have that 500mb low sitting over Arkansas close to memphis for that to happen.

Just in that facet it's remarkable at the 2 year stretch of incredible directional shear in the springs of 2020 and 2021. Most memorable tornado events in my weather watching time. 2011 I wasn't into it lol.
 
Just a note. If your looking for westerlies in the 500. Wednesday is the day for you .. atleast euro wise lol . A more prototypical directional shear day for isolated storms. Saturday and Monday are not that day. But Wednesdays placement is begging to look very favorable a flatter 500 mb with westerlies from missippi/ Alabama and Georgia. Slightly reminiscent to easter 2020 tornado outbreak 500mb placement. ?️


Lol nvm I stand corrected this is after the cold fronts moved through ?. I gotta stop and look at the whole dang picture ?
 
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Man, I have trust issues when it comes to hi res models lol. So flippity floppity. Even when it's two days out lol. It's been going from nothing something nothing something something something nothing nothing and then this crap hahaScreenshot_20221229-152215-401.pngScreenshot_20221229-152141-553.png
 
It's always fun to watch he models try to resolve gulf convection and the resultant storm coverage to the north. You can see the impact of a gulf coast mcs when you look at the 3k vs the 12k 18z nams with the 12k having better coverage farther north. As a whole this is the classic cape chasing MCS setup on Friday into Saturday. Not entirely sure what it anything could get going Saturday afternoon/ evening on the back of the mcs. There will be a lot of subsidence and poor thermos there that may be able to be offset by better kinematics.

The system next week has the makings of a Arklatex, miss, west TN, Missouri boot heel look with the best forcing racing north with a decaying mcs moving east across the region. There might be a secondary threat across parts of AL/GA as more energy rounds the base of the trough but I'm not sold
 
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SD said:
It's always fun to watch he models try to resolve gulf convection and the resultant storm coverage to the north. You can see the impact of a gulf coast mcs when you look at the 3k vs the 12k 18z nams with the 12k having better coverage farther north. As a whole this is the classic cape chasing MCS setup on Friday into Saturday. Not entirely sure what it anything could get going Saturday afternoon/ evening on the back of the mcs. There will be a lot of subsidence and poor thermos there that may be about to be offset by better kinematics.

The system next week has the makings of a Arklatex, miss, west TN, Missouri boot heel look with the best forcing racing north with a decaying mcs moving east across the region. There might be a secondary threat across parts of AL/GA as more energy rounds the base of the trough but I'm not sold
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Thought it'd be interesting to add but on SPC discussion they mentioned adding risk area for portions of the south on Saturdays threat. Just roll the dice and see what we get I guess ?
 
I think itll be a decent bowing segment attached to a squall line tommorow morning/ afternoon in south Mississippi. Models have walked back on Gulf convection some albeit hrrr seems to bumped it more some in the 00z.. Don't think there's many board members in south Mississippi if any though. The threat will either be elevated convection of barely surface based lol with pretty meager instability. Just driven by kinematics it seems
 
Some screenshots of the hi res suites. Trust the WRF most right now. But once the short range HRRR really gets into shooting distance I'll lean on it more. wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_seus_29.pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_30.pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_25.pngScreenshot_20221229-204255-922.pngScreenshot_20221229-204220-819.pngScreenshot_20221229-205046-574.png
 

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accu35 said:
Any chance south Alabama could get rocked?
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Maybe a couple severe storms tommorow afternoon. Not really sure with the Tuesday Wednesday threat. I'd imagine dynamics are going to be pretty far north. A couple days closer and we will probably know something
 
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