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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
 
Zander98al said:
Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
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Been busy myself today. Haven't had chance to really check things. This Wednesday/Thursday thing is intriguing.
 
Zander98al said:
Sorry for lack of analysis or posts lol . Busy day will post shortly a, a formidable severe threat is shaping up for the missippi Alabama region Wednesday into Thursday on top of the Monday threat. Saturdays threat is still in question. I guess you could call it a conditional threat lol
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Been waiting for your updates haha . And hoping Atlanta is in the mix for at least one of them!
 
shortstopsergio said:
I’m more educated on the weather than the average person but I never learned how to read these. Anyone willing to educate?
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Some of your more important factors tend to be LCL, 3CAPE, SBCAPE, 3KM/1KM HELICITY, LAPSE RATES. and your hodo graph which is on the top right. You'd want something that looks like a sickle almost; for some robust storms. Lot of other factors but those are some of the things I look at when glancing through for possibility of tornado potential.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
SWly flow at 500mb. Good look for a QLCS right there especially with those sort of wind parameters
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Generally it's hard pressed to find a event in the south that doesn't congeal into a line of sorts. Its almost a a ticking time clock of opportunity where it's semi isolated lol. But your right, would want it more westerly hardly ever get that in Alabama or Mississippi. Gotta have that 500mb low sitting over Arkansas close to memphis for that to happen.

Just in that facet it's remarkable at the 2 year stretch of incredible directional shear in the springs of 2020 and 2021. Most memorable tornado events in my weather watching time. 2011 I wasn't into it lol.
 
Just a note. If your looking for westerlies in the 500. Wednesday is the day for you .. atleast euro wise lol . A more prototypical directional shear day for isolated storms. Saturday and Monday are not that day. But Wednesdays placement is begging to look very favorable a flatter 500 mb with westerlies from missippi/ Alabama and Georgia. Slightly reminiscent to easter 2020 tornado outbreak 500mb placement. ?️


Lol nvm I stand corrected this is after the cold fronts moved through ?. I gotta stop and look at the whole dang picture ?
 
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Man, I have trust issues when it comes to hi res models lol. So flippity floppity. Even when it's two days out lol. It's been going from nothing something nothing something something something nothing nothing and then this crap hahaScreenshot_20221229-152215-401.pngScreenshot_20221229-152141-553.png
 
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