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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

It appears lack of overwhelming forcing is helping to keep things a bit more isolated if I had to guess. Things to watch that will elevate the threat is lapse rates and if instability is underdone.
 
Zander98al said:
What's with all the weenies and fails guys?
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We love you man. Keep posting away. This threat looks pretty formidable from what I just saw on modeling, but there’s disagreement. Just wait for the NAM to get into better range though
 
Zander98al said:
What's with all the weenies and fails guys?
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There's confusion on the timing/difference in the events to be fair.

Like right now, it's a sloppy mess outside imby. The original stuff that came through MS didn't pan out as the NAM had on it's more aggressive runs.

Kicking the can down to Tuesday onward (a completely different event), which is after New Years it seems.
 
Here's my issue,

This is a weather forum 1st and foremost I would hope. whenever there's possibility of bad weather here typically Georgia-west. It's always fun and most the board members west of that divide enjoy talking and posting stuff amateur or not sure always differing opinions because weather is not a easy thing to forecast. But there's always a clique of sarcastic annoying posters east of Georgia that come in and are either sarcastic butts or spam informative posts from people that live in my state or adjacent states ; analysis from amateurs or just people that love weather like me. and make it a fall in line or thou be criticized and spammed or some stupid crap and they don't even post anything informative or to help anything. Y'all know the clique. We are all adults don't understand why everyone can't just act it and get along or have healthy discourse on weather. It's always been a issue since I've been on the board and I imagine it drives away newbies / amateurs who just like weather and want to post. Almost like a frat house mob east of that divide. Keep doing what y'all do not asking for change or anything but more so a outlook from myself , but eventually the people that come that love weather will get aggravated and either not post or leave.

So that's my qualm.
 
Interesting look by the FV3 for Arkansas Monday afternoon. Although it's usually prone to overdoing supercells lol fv3-hires_ref_uv10m_seus_55.pngfv3-hires_ref_uv10m_seus_54.png
 
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Zander98al said:
Here's my issue,

This is a weather forum 1st and foremost I would hope. whenever there's possibility of bad weather here typically Georgia-west. It's always fun and most the board members west of that divide enjoy talking and posting stuff amateur or not sure always differing opinions because weather is not a easy thing to forecast. But there's always a clique of sarcastic annoying posters east of Georgia that come in and are either sarcastic butts or spam informative posts from people that live in my state or adjacent states ; analysis from amateurs or just people that love weather like me. and make it a fall in line or thou be criticized and spammed or some stupid crap and they don't even post anything informative or to help anything. Y'all know the clique. We are all adults don't understand why everyone can't just act it and get along or have healthy discourse on weather. It's always been a issue since I've been on the board and I imagine it drives away newbies / amateurs who just like weather and want to post. Almost like a frat house mob east of that divide. Keep doing what y'all do not asking for change or anything but more so a outlook from myself , but eventually the people that come that love weather will get aggravated and either not post or leave.

So that's my qualm.
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Relax man. Just ignore the reactions and keep doing your thing man. Just keep fail modes in mentions though, because when you just say things that lean towards something one sided (saying tornado outbreak or things along the line) then people may take it that your hyping, im just trying to help man, as a fellow severe weenie
 
Zander98al said:
Interesting look by the FV3 for Arkansas Monday afternoon. Although it's usually prone to overdoing supercells lol View attachment 129055View attachment 129056
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This makes sense with the h5 and sfc lows moving out of the rockies into the central plains. I do wonder if we get a little bit of weak forcing off the gulf to maybe get a more mcs type mode vs the supercells on the fv3
 
SD said:
This makes sense with the h5 and sfc lows moving out of the rockies into the central plains. I do wonder if we get a little bit of weak forcing off the gulf to maybe get a more mcs type mode vs the supercells on the fv3
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For us, Carolina’s could catch a little heat with the reinforcing energy swinging on the base of of the trough. But it wouldn’t likely be supercells but probably something linear given more uni flow later on
 
Zander98al said:
Here's my issue,

This is a weather forum 1st and foremost I would hope. whenever there's possibility of bad weather here typically Georgia-west. It's always fun and most the board members west of that divide enjoy talking and posting stuff amateur or not sure always differing opinions because weather is not a easy thing to forecast. But there's always a clique of sarcastic annoying posters east of Georgia that come in and are either sarcastic butts or spam informative posts from people that live in my state or adjacent states ; analysis from amateurs or just people that love weather like me. and make it a fall in line or thou be criticized and spammed or some stupid crap and they don't even post anything informative or to help anything. Y'all know the clique. We are all adults don't understand why everyone can't just act it and get along or have healthy discourse on weather. It's always been a issue since I've been on the board and I imagine it drives away newbies / amateurs who just like weather and want to post. Almost like a frat house mob east of that divide. Keep doing what y'all do not asking for change or anything but more so a outlook from myself , but eventually the people that come that love weather will get aggravated and either not post or leave.

So that's my qualm.
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In a weather forum it’s best not to spam false pretenses and misinformation especially when you’re dealing with a “tornado outbreak” potential. I remember seeing posts about the past severe event and how it would turn into a tornado outbreak. It didn’t. As you get closer in time things become clearer. When you are dealing with messy storm systems you tend to not get big time tornado outbreaks. It’s good to convey the severe weather potential but it’s not good to hype a longer range “tornado outbreak” when in reality it ends up being a straight line wind and isolated tornado set up. Tornados are hard for the atmosphere to create a ton of things have to go right for them to form especially on a widespread scale that constitutes an outbreak. Even in set ups that are seen as slam dunks sometime fail due to the smallest reasons. Weather is fun to track and a fun hobby for some but it’s irresponsible to hype for a week that a tornado outbreak is coming when nothing of the sort ends up verifying. Especially on a board where people go to get somewhat accurate information on the weather and insight they may not get anywhere else.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
For us, Carolina’s could catch a little heat with the reinforcing energy swinging on the base of of the trough. But it wouldn’t likely be supercells but probably something linear given more uni flow later on
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That seems to really be the key feature for most of us on the board. That initial system off the rockies is the typical dynamics rocketing away from the region with a weakening qlcs moving through.
 
Think the point I was making didn't come across.. ?

I'll try again in a year.. when the same issues pop up once again ?.

Let me do some damage control and change my location. If we are worried of people taking people saying forecasts or tornado outbreaks on here how bout put a banner saying "NOT OFFICIAL FORECASTS". So then all criticism and spam from the mob will cease to exist
 
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Not sure how to delete my account lol, so @mods would y'all do me the honor ?
 
In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
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This is exactly what I see when I look at this setup. Wildcard is energy at base of trough that can swing through and get stuff going, that would Be problematic. but that’s a big IF. The stuff I saw this morning on here was insane. Saying tornado outbreak for AL and looking at lower res models like the rgem/long range nam, with other model disagreement is extremely misleading. Sure it could happen, but there are fails modes as well. Which deserve to be mentioned at much as the chances it could overachieve. What makes a great forecaster vs a bias forecaster is seeing things that can go wrong, Vs seeing what you want. Look at mark margavage on Twitter as another example of a bias forecaster
 
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Darklordsuperstorm said:
In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
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Really the location of the surface low really wouldn’t matter here. Surface pressures are generally between 1006-1010mb which is dead in the range of significant AL tornadoes and surface winds remain out of the south. The forcing staying northward and bulk shear hitting the boundary look favorable for more discrete convection.

Probably gulf convection is the biggest factor here that limits instability. These complexes always seem to slow and destroy the thermos more than models say. Probably gonna be a issue with laspe rates as well with a probable lack of EML. The timing being in the middle of the night doesn’t help as well when these questions are here as well.
 
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SD said:
He seemed to have issues with being here so I helped out is how I see it. I'm fine with having differing opinions but wishcasting severe and getting mad when people say eh not so sure isn't a great look
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Zander had a valid point. Yes he may be extreme with some of his outlooks and terminology, but the point he was making is that if whatever is being discussed doesn’t involve the Carolina’s it gets crapped on by a lot of people and discredited. Move this to banter if you feel it is necessary but this is SOUTHERNwx not just CAROLINAwx.
 
Acrockr said:
Zander had a valid point. Yes he may be extreme with some of his outlooks and terminology, but the point he was making is that if whatever is being discussed doesn’t involve the Carolina’s it gets crapped on by a lot of people and discredited. Move this to banter if you feel it is necessary but this is SOUTHERNwx not just CAROLINAwx.
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If someone is directly crapping on something because of location that isn't great, it's not what we want but I can't say I have really noticed it. Honestly I read the post content more than look at who it's from or where they live, if it seems legit I let it go. If you or anyone sees this happening please let me know. I personally think it's easier to discuss weather there than here since I don't have any biases related to mby
 
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