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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
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This is exactly what I see when I look at this setup. Wildcard is energy at base of trough that can swing through and get stuff going, that would Be problematic. but that’s a big IF. The stuff I saw this morning on here was insane. Saying tornado outbreak for AL and looking at lower res models like the rgem/long range nam, with other model disagreement is extremely misleading. Sure it could happen, but there are fails modes as well. Which deserve to be mentioned at much as the chances it could overachieve. What makes a great forecaster vs a bias forecaster is seeing things that can go wrong, Vs seeing what you want. Look at mark margavage on Twitter as another example of a bias forecaster
 
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Darklordsuperstorm said:
In an effort to try to get this train back on the tracks. The main thing I'm still seeing with this system is the way the shortwave is ejecting and thus keeping the main surface low farther to the north which would suggest a more linear storm mode and less dynamic support as the system moves east. That surface low is trying to book it to the north and east. The thermodynamics will definitely be there widespread dews in the 60s. Right now my gut tells me this would will be more of a damaging wind and flooding setup with a lesser chance for a tornado.
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Really the location of the surface low really wouldn’t matter here. Surface pressures are generally between 1006-1010mb which is dead in the range of significant AL tornadoes and surface winds remain out of the south. The forcing staying northward and bulk shear hitting the boundary look favorable for more discrete convection.

Probably gulf convection is the biggest factor here that limits instability. These complexes always seem to slow and destroy the thermos more than models say. Probably gonna be a issue with laspe rates as well with a probable lack of EML. The timing being in the middle of the night doesn’t help as well when these questions are here as well.
 
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SD said:
He seemed to have issues with being here so I helped out is how I see it. I'm fine with having differing opinions but wishcasting severe and getting mad when people say eh not so sure isn't a great look
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Zander had a valid point. Yes he may be extreme with some of his outlooks and terminology, but the point he was making is that if whatever is being discussed doesn’t involve the Carolina’s it gets crapped on by a lot of people and discredited. Move this to banter if you feel it is necessary but this is SOUTHERNwx not just CAROLINAwx.
 
Acrockr said:
Zander had a valid point. Yes he may be extreme with some of his outlooks and terminology, but the point he was making is that if whatever is being discussed doesn’t involve the Carolina’s it gets crapped on by a lot of people and discredited. Move this to banter if you feel it is necessary but this is SOUTHERNwx not just CAROLINAwx.
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If someone is directly crapping on something because of location that isn't great, it's not what we want but I can't say I have really noticed it. Honestly I read the post content more than look at who it's from or where they live, if it seems legit I let it go. If you or anyone sees this happening please let me know. I personally think it's easier to discuss weather there than here since I don't have any biases related to mby
 
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