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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

Arcc said:
In this circumstance, the more SW winds at 500mb may not be detrimental here with the large broad based trough and most of the forcing to the north. Petty serious winter time look from the NAM.
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Always enjoy your posts to be quite frank I've probably learned the most about weather on this forum from you lol. You have a pretty darn good grasp on the climatology of severe events in this state. ?
 
Zander98al said:
Always enjoy your posts to be quite frank I've probably learned the most about weather on this forum from you lol. You have a pretty darn good grasp on the climatology of severe events in this state. ?
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Everything I know I learned from lots of late night chats with Fred Gossage on Yahoo over a decade ago. Wish he would migrate over here.
 
While your here @Arcc what's your thought on the day 6 potential in Alabama? Seems as if conditions linger for two short waves to come through just by looking at some globals. I doubt moisture return would be sufficient for a second substantial event in the same area within 24 hours but Idk
 
One of the products I’ve learned to like over the years is the 850mb VV on Pivotal. It helps you see through the reflectivity products. For instance the composite reflectivity doesn’t look that impressive on first glance, the the VV product shows Supercells on the state line and what appears to be at least semi discrete supercells in the line itself. Good thing it’s the NAM as that is a very ominous look.

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Arcc said:
One of the products I’ve learned to like over the years is the 850mb VV on Pivotal. It helps you see through the reflectivity products. For instance the composite reflectivity doesn’t look that impressive on first glance, the the VV product shows Supercells on the state line and what appears to be at least semi discrete supercells in the line itself. Good thing it’s the NAM as that is a very ominous look.

View attachment 129011

View attachment 129010
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I'd like to put out there arcc Nam was not to shabby with forecasting the line for south alabama that came through today if I remember correctly. WRF did relatively well within the two day build up to the line as well.

It'd be a red alert if the WRF was on board with the solution of the pictures you sent though. Kindve concerned for a multi day significant severe system for Dixie alley.
 
Zander98al said:
While your here @Arcc what's your thought on the day 6 potential in Alabama? Seems as if conditions linger for two short waves to come through just by looking at some globals. I doubt moisture return would be sufficient for a second substantial event in the same area within 24 hours but Idk
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If the GFS is right, there could definitely be a significant threat in that second round. The front from the first never clears so moisture won’t be a problem and probably would actually be better in the second round. The GFS isn’t there yet, but it isn’t that far from something. Isn’t far from some sort of winter mischief after the second round either.
 
Arcc said:
If the GFS is right, there could definitely be a significant threat in that second round. The front from the first never clears so moisture won’t be a problem and probably would actually be better in the second round. The GFS isn’t there yet, but it isn’t that far from something. Isn’t far from some sort of winter mischief after the second round either.
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Flatter trough as well.
 
Zander98al said:
If timing was perfect missippi and Alabama will get hit hard. Sounding from near the state line of Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday. (Day 5). Large sickle hodographs. Speed shear is on point. 500mb winds are about as good as you'll get for this event not the best though. View attachment 129005View attachment 129006
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Yeah those would make for some wicked super cells if we have a discrete storm mode. Note how they would be venting all their precipitation to the north west
 
Euro run of 500mb winds is almost completely from the west for a majority of Alabama for Tuesday afternoon. Concern is growing for a nasty couple of days in Mississippi and Alabama. ?
 
Timing is looking to start favoring afternoon arrival for Mississippi /Alabama for the Tuesday threat. System has slowed down. Good news for Arkansas Louisiana. Crappy news for Alabama/ Mississippi
 
Monday afternoon for Mississippi notice the abundance of potential cells near the state line of Arkansas Louisiana and Mississippi moving northeast . 850hvv.us_se (4).png850hvv.us_se (3).pngrefcmp.us_se (10).pngrefcmp.us_se (9).png
 
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