Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

[Zander98al]

Probably about to have spin up any minute

 

[Johnkittz]

Pretty robust line of strong winds. With a possible spin up area heading due east to the mobile area. View attachment 128975

You know he's dedicated when he's watching police interviews while reviewing the weather.

 

[Zander98al]

This things been on the cusp of a spin up for awhile now lol

 

[Zander98al]

Seems as if Gulf convection was over forecasted and a non issue today. Seems like the WRF did the best beating out the HRRR.

 

[NWMSGuy]

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 128981

Dang that's almost a mirror image between the SPC and that lol

 

[shortstopsergio]

View attachment 128981

What is this map exactly and how is it generated? Thanks In advance!

 

[Zander98al]

Trying to remember the last time Arkansas has a substantial tornado/ severe threat. Maybe vilionia tornado?

 

[Zander98al]

Trying to remember the last time Arkansas has a substantial tornado/ severe threat. Maybe vilionia tornado?

Think it was

 

[NWMSGuy]

What is this map exactly and how is it generated? Thanks In advance!

CSU Models. Here is the link for more details: http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/

 

[shortstopsergio]

CSU Models. Here is the link for more details: http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/

Thanks!

 

[Hpdb301]

Maybe on day 5. I'f you cross your fingers haha.

And actually tommorow afternoon/ evening it's not out of the question for some bad weather in the southern half of Georgia

I'm gonna say no to Atl. Unless the wedge breaks down which is unlikely this time of year and I've seen nothing that would indicate it. But it's still the south always a chance I guess!

 

[accu35]

For the short term @accu35 pretty sure you said you live in mobile

Close to Mobile. I live about 2 hours north from from Mobile.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Close to Mobile. I live about 2 hours north from from Mobile.

So not close.

 

[Zander98al]

So not close.

Bruh

 

[Zander98al]

Timing needs to get nailed down for Monday and Tuesdays threat. Tuesdays shear values have become more favorable in Mississippi and Alabama. Seems as if the system has slowed down on modeling.

 

[Zander98al]

If timing was perfect missippi and Alabama will get hit hard. Sounding from near the state line of Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday. (Day 5). Large sickle hodographs. Speed shear is on point. 500mb winds are about as good as you'll get for this event not the best though.

 

[Zander98al]

If timing was perfect missippi and Alabama will get hit hard. Sounding from near the state line of Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday. (Day 5). Large sickle hodographs. Speed shear is on point. 500mb winds are about as good as you'll get for this event not the best though. View attachment 129005View attachment 129006

In short if this is mid day with more higher instability better lapse rates. It'll be a long day for weather men. Don't sleep on day 5.

 

[Arcc]

If timing was perfect missippi and Alabama will get hit hard. Sounding from near the state line of Alabama and Mississippi Tuesday. (Day 5). Large sickle hodographs. Speed shear is on point. 500mb winds are about as good as you'll get for this event not the best though. View attachment 129005View attachment 129006

In this circumstance, the more SW winds at 500mb may not be detrimental here with the large broad based trough and most of the forcing to the north. Petty serious winter time look from the NAM.

 

[Zander98al]

In this circumstance, the more SW winds at 500mb may not be detrimental here with the large broad based trough and most of the forcing to the north. Petty serious winter time look from the NAM.

Yeah I was looking at that. If timing was midday and models underestimate thermos like they usually do it's a rough day. May end up scooting to more westerlies depending on how things go ?