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Severe New Year's Week Severe Threat(s)

Zander98al said:
Hey GFS put the breaks on. 5 day span of rain totals. Topping 9 inches south of BirminghamView attachment 128787
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GFS stalls the 2nd system. The parent low goes into the lower Hudson Bay, nearly, and there is a very long train of rain from the gulf coast to Maine. That's probably not realistic. GDPS sends the parent low to Hudson Bay, but develops a secondary low in the southeast. Still alot of rain, though. I'll go to the GEFS for guidance on the second system.
 
Thought I'd put this out here. Alabama's drought monitor. Most of Alabama is under a slight to elevated drought status. Beneficial rain, but not really a good thing when you get buckets and buckets of rain dropped in a short period of time. Vegetation won't be able to retain it. May be some localized small landslides and such. Screenshot_20221227-120708.png
 
Interesting scenario setting up for Saturday it looks like; needs another day of model runs to get into full view. But your looking at a pretty robust event for south Alabama. going to hinge on timing ALOT.
 
Globals are wackily underestimating the unstable pool of air right off the coast. Big boom for Cape coming in the next day or two with model runs for Saturday. Timing is still crucial, big moving part is the clearing skies after the storms move through Friday night early Saturday morning.
 
Just check the Nam vs GFS at the same time midnight /early morning Saturday.
Low 70's dewpoint just about 50 miles from the coast . Yeah that's not good if your looking for Cape to be low. Screenshot_20221227-153159-562.pngScreenshot_20221227-153120-005.png
 
Both globals have the longwave trough already a good bit into ejecting, while the NAM has it hanging tight digging. NAM is a bit troublesome. I think the system is close to coming on shore in California so it should be getting sampled soon if not already, if sampled I go with NAM. And that extra shortwave being a possible troublemaker for south Alabama and south Georgia. It'll be messy but it'll have to battle the cap until the shortwave comes through later into Saturday from the previous rain. of the day before and early morning. That's my hot take lolecmwf_z500_vort_us_29.pnggfs_z500_vort_us_15 (1).pngnamconus_z500_vort_us_53 (2).png
 
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