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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
that first possible severe threat looks more confined to the gulf coast, given the deep vortex to our NE 
Now this is a look that could easily get the Carolinas involved in severe wx 
I could see that happening especially as the trough associated with severe wx/rain moves over
Interesting 
I actually think we do get cooler later this month.
RIP only a brief warm up .. warm weenies rejoice while u still can
LickWx
Member
I will rejoice in the fact that the averages are higher and below average is still mild ! So boom .
NCSNOW
Member
H.I. and 86 or 90, whats the difference. Hot is Hot.
The map is warmer in the SE largely because 3/14-20 is progged to be a transition period with warmth hanging on early in the SE. Later we'll have to see if the SE ridge ends up holding the cold back from especially the deeper SE. I'm hoping the MJO turns out to be the deciding factor and it won't. So, we'll see. I'm thankful models aren't anywhere near all knowing because otherwise there'd be no reason to have forecasting discussions like this.
Yep, and that’s probably gonna be the last “legit cold” and that’s probably like upper 40s/low 50s and low 30s/mid to upper 20s at the coldest, but it could easily change to warmer, either way a cool shot in late March isn’t bad anymore, and we’re warming up quickly average wise, it’s just climobro !!!
This is easily the best forecast I’ve seen this year 
What a great day! We don't see a RH as low as 18% very often but we have it thanks to the 18 dewpoint, which is even lower than what was progged..so look out below tonight when the winds lighten!
HUNTER AFB SUNNY 62 18 18 N7G21 30.28R
Bonus: Hogtown
GAINESVILLE SUNNY 66 28 24 NE13 30.28F
HUNTER AFB SUNNY 62 18 18 N7G21 30.28R
Bonus: Hogtown
GAINESVILLE SUNNY 66 28 24 NE13 30.28F
It doesn't get much better than this here in early March for outdoor activities from my perspective. I love the ~32 degree drop progged from today's highs, thanks to the 18% RH! The high teen dewpoints are about 10 colder than what the GFS progged:
GAZ118-080900-
INLAND CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH
324 PM EST SUN MAR 7 2021
..FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
TONIGHT
CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY
WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. SCATTERED FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY
SCATTERED FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
IN THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
GAZ118-080900-
INLAND CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH
324 PM EST SUN MAR 7 2021
..FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY
TONIGHT
CLEAR. WIDESPREAD FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY
WIDESPREAD FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
CLEAR. SCATTERED FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY
SCATTERED FROST IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH
IN THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
Hold the normal to below stuff through easter weekend then all the spring. By that point it's hard for us to frost/ freeze
Sucks each time we ridge something wants to cutoff and N/S stuff wants to dive SE
Anyways quite a impressive ridge on the v16
Anyways quite a impressive ridge on the v16
If we go calm tonight we beat last night's temps but I've got a sneaky suspicion the wind stays up
Let’s do this every run the next few days 
If it would pretty please the mods, I'd like to request an official toss of the Happy Hour GFS ensemble. It isn't that it has it warm in the SE. I just don't care for the "look".
Wedges 
This is probably when it cools down when the trough passes over (cool/dry) 
Rexing the pacific is a recipe for cold in the eastern US, hope that backs off 
I’d rather the cold signal get held back a bit more to late March, cool days in late March/early April are pretty good, problem is we switch to summer after that lol with nothing in between (which I don’t mind but some do)
I've for a long time been a big radiation fan and my time walking around dusk in Hogtown on good rad. nights intensified my appreciation of it further. You want to see some first class radiation? Feast your eyes on this at Augusta:
6 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 57 17 21 NW6
7 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 47 25 42 CALM
8 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 41 29 62 SW5
16 degree drop in 2 hours thanks to a 21% RH at the start!
Also, note how much the dewpoint rose, which is common in these radiational situations during the evening.
6 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 57 17 21 NW6
7 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 47 25 42 CALM
8 PM AUGUSTA-BUSH CLEAR 41 29 62 SW5
16 degree drop in 2 hours thanks to a 21% RH at the start!
Also, note how much the dewpoint rose, which is common in these radiational situations during the evening.
Last edited:
18z EPS says we might extend the warmup into Sunday with a stronger southeast ridge
Psalm 148:8
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Glenn Burns in Atlanta talking about a big cool down coming in after the warm up next week... he also mentioned moisture... not that this has worked out this year... and he’s probably wrong.. but what the heck?
Glenn Burns in Atlanta talking about a big cool down coming in after the warm up next week... he also mentioned moisture... not that this has worked out this year... and he’s probably wrong.. but what the heck?
I’m hoping for another cooldown (at least as good as the current one) to make it to the SE after the warmup due to the favorable Pacific factors of -EPO/-WPO/MJO (despite no -AO, -NAO, or +PNA bring progged on GEFS). But to even just hint at possible wintry precip in ATL from this seems a bit overdone as of now at least from what I’ve seen on model consensus and considering it would be during the last half of March. I’m not saying it is anywhere near impossible as it has happened well into April, but it becomes pretty rare once past the midpoint of the month.
Jessy89
Member
If we do see anything wintry I needs to happen at night. I wouldn’t entirely rule out something just the chances are slim. The models have pulled everyone in all year just to let us down. So of course the models will do it one last time.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The models just aren’t “smart” enough to really know far in advance what really is going to happen. So, they do a lot of psyching as a result. The secret to avoid the letdowns is to just not believe them more than a few days out since they’re so bad. But as I’ve said, them being bad actually makes the forecasting challenge so much more interesting.
588dm heights is what you commonly see in the summer lol 
1 more of this please ?
31/23
Here’s the look after, I could deal with a day or so of some wedging then back to warmth 
Looks like the GFS finally got a idea with the northern stream energy, it’s been holding it to far north while the v16 has agreed with other models, it’s clear the v16 is better 
